Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Infosys reports before market open, meaning Day 0 captures the first reaction session and Day +1 reflects follow-through trading.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | -$0.26 (-2.38%) | $0.46 (4.23%) | +$0.44 (+4.12%) | $0.30 (2.81%) |
| 2026-04-23 | -$0.54 (-4.01%) | $0.46 (3.38%) | -$0.08 (-0.62%) | $0.47 (3.63%) |
| 2026-01-14 | +$1.83 (+10.45%) | $1.38 (7.88%) | -$0.53 (-2.74%) | $0.59 (3.07%) |
| 2025-10-16 | -$0.37 (-2.25%) | $0.47 (2.89%) | +$0.26 (+1.62%) | $0.25 (1.59%) |
| 2025-07-23 | +$0.19 (+1.04%) | $0.43 (2.38%) | -$0.77 (-4.17%) | $0.29 (1.57%) |
| 2025-04-17 | -$0.44 (-2.65%) | $0.63 (3.77%) | +$0.44 (+2.73%) | $0.49 (3.07%) |
| 2025-01-16 | -$1.32 (-5.77%) | $1.29 (5.64%) | -$0.38 (-1.76%) | $0.39 (1.81%) |
| 2024-10-17 | -$0.24 (-1.05%) | $0.71 (3.12%) | -$0.15 (-0.66%) | $0.32 (1.41%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 3.70% | 4.16% | 2.30% | 2.37% |
Historical price action shows Infosys typically moves 3.70% on earnings day (Day 0) with an average intraday range of 4.16%, followed by a 2.30% move on Day +1 with a 2.37% range. The most dramatic reaction came in January 2026 with a +10.45% surge on Day 0, while the largest decline was -5.77% in January 2025. Recent quarters have been more subdued—the last three reports produced Day 0 moves between -4.01% and +4.12%. Investors should expect meaningful volatility, with the stock capable of multi-percent swings in either direction depending on results and guidance.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 10/16/26 (DTE 2) |
| Expected Move | $0.47 (4.07%) |
| Expected Range | $11.01 to $11.95 |
| Implied Volatility | 73.41% |
The options market is pricing a 4.07% expected move (range of $11.01 to $11.95) through the October 16 expiration, slightly above the 3.70% average historical Day 0 move but below the 4.16% average intraday range. This suggests options traders are anticipating typical earnings volatility rather than an outsized reaction.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analyst sentiment on Infosys remains cautious with a consensus rating of 3.27 (Hold), unchanged over the past month. The breakdown shows 2 Strong Buys, 0 Moderate Buys, 13 Holds, 0 Moderate Sells, and 0 Strong Sells among 15 analysts covering the stock—a distribution that reflects limited conviction in either direction.
The average price target of $11.38 sits essentially at the current price of $11.48, implying minimal upside or downside from current levels. The range of targets is wide, spanning from a low of $9.00 to a high of $13.80, suggesting meaningful disagreement about the stock's fair value. The sentiment trend is classified as unchanged, indicating analysts have not materially shifted their views recently despite the stock's recent performance and last quarter's earnings miss.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion shows a 72% Sell signal, representing a modest improvement from 100% Sell both last week and last month, suggesting some stabilization after a period of technical weakness.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal indicates near-term momentum remains negative but less extreme than longer timeframes
- Medium-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal suggests intermediate-term pressure persists with no clear reversal pattern
- Long-term (100% Sell): Strong sell signal reflects significant weakness in the longer-term trend structure
Trend Characteristics: The technical environment shows Average strength with the Weakest direction, indicating a deteriorating trend that lacks strong momentum in either direction heading into earnings.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $11.03 | 50-Day MA | $11.45 |
| 10-Day MA | $10.94 | 100-Day MA | $11.54 |
| 20-Day MA | $10.83 | 200-Day MA | $13.17 |
INFY is trading at $11.48, positioned above its 5-day ($11.03), 10-day ($10.94), 20-day ($10.83), and 50-day ($11.45) moving averages, but below its 100-day ($11.54) and 200-day ($13.17) averages. This mixed picture shows short-term stabilization after recent weakness, but the stock remains well below its longer-term trend. The 200-day average at $13.17 represents significant overhead resistance, while the 50-day at $11.45 provides nearby support. The technical setup is cautionary heading into earnings—while the stock has found some footing in recent sessions, the longer-term downtrend and bearish signals suggest limited cushion if results or guidance disappoint.