Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Manpower typically reports before the market open, meaning Day 0 captures the first reaction session and Day +1 reflects follow-through trading.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | +$12.63 (+32.37%) | $6.22 (15.94%) | +$0.69 (+1.34%) | $4.40 (8.52%) |
| 2026-04-16 | +$0.27 (+0.88%) | $3.80 (12.37%) | +$0.13 (+0.42%) | $1.39 (4.48%) |
| 2026-01-29 | +$4.33 (+14.95%) | $5.50 (18.99%) | +$3.04 (+9.13%) | $2.60 (7.81%) |
| 2025-10-16 | -$2.48 (-6.52%) | $5.64 (14.83%) | -$1.83 (-5.15%) | $2.26 (6.36%) |
| 2025-07-17 | +$1.26 (+2.92%) | $4.52 (10.50%) | -$1.11 (-2.50%) | $1.81 (4.08%) |
| 2025-04-17 | -$9.44 (-19.07%) | $5.53 (11.17%) | -$0.10 (-0.25%) | $1.45 (3.61%) |
| 2025-01-30 | +$0.33 (+0.55%) | $3.11 (5.15%) | -$0.49 (-0.81%) | $1.42 (2.34%) |
| 2024-10-17 | -$7.25 (-9.76%) | $4.77 (6.42%) | -$1.80 (-2.68%) | $2.87 (4.28%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 10.88% | 11.92% | 2.78% | 5.18% |
Manpower exhibits highly volatile post-earnings price behavior, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 10.88% and Day 0 range of 11.92%. The most recent July 2026 report triggered a dramatic +32.37% surge, the largest move in the dataset, while April 2025 saw a sharp -19.07% decline. The Day +1 follow-through averages 2.78% with a 5.18% range, indicating that while the initial reaction is explosive, subsequent sessions tend to be more measured.
The historical pattern shows no clear directional bias — the stock has moved both sharply higher and lower depending on results and guidance. However, the magnitude is consistently significant, with six of the eight most recent reports producing Day 0 moves exceeding 6% in absolute terms. Investors should prepare for substantial volatility, as MAN's earnings releases have historically been major catalysts that can move the stock 10% or more in a single session.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 10/16/26 (DTE 2) |
| Expected Move | $3.95 (7.61%) |
| Expected Range | $48.01 to $55.91 |
| Implied Volatility | 151.80% |
The options market is pricing a 7.61% expected move (±$3.95, range $48.01–$55.91) for this earnings release, which is notably lower than the 10.88% average absolute historical Day 0 move. This suggests options traders may be underpricing the potential volatility, given MAN's track record of double-digit post-earnings swings.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic stance on Manpower heading into earnings. The consensus rating stands at 3.50 (between Hold and Buy), with 3 Strong Buys, 9 Holds, and no sell ratings among the 12 analysts covering the stock. The average price target of $57.90 implies 11.4% upside from the current price of $51.96, with individual targets ranging from a low of $47.00 to a high of $72.00.
Analyst sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, with the rating distribution and average recommendation holding steady at 3.50. This stability suggests analysts are waiting for the earnings release to reassess their views rather than making preemptive changes. The wide spread in price targets — from $47.00 to $72.00 — reflects meaningful disagreement about MAN's valuation and growth trajectory, with bulls seeing potential for 38% upside while bears see 9% downside risk.
The concentration of ratings in the Hold category (9 of 12 analysts) indicates most of the Street is taking a wait-and-see approach, likely wanting confirmation that the sharp earnings acceleration implied by estimates can be sustained. The three Strong Buy ratings suggest some analysts believe the market is underestimating MAN's earnings power in an improving labor market, while the absence of any sell ratings indicates no analyst is outright bearish on the stock at current levels.
Part 4: Technical Picture
Manpower's technical setup heading into earnings shows deteriorating momentum after a strong longer-term advance. The Barchart Technical Opinion currently registers a 40% Buy signal, down from 72% Buy a month ago, indicating weakening near-term conviction despite the stock trading well above its 200-day moving average.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (Hold): Neutral signal reflects loss of near-term momentum as the stock has pulled back from recent highs
- Medium-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal suggests the intermediate trend remains constructive but is showing signs of fatigue
- Long-term (100% Buy): Strong buy signal confirms the dominant uptrend remains intact on a longer timeframe
Trend Characteristics: The technical environment shows average strength with a weakening direction, suggesting momentum is fading as the stock approaches earnings despite the longer-term uptrend remaining in place.
The stock is currently trading at $51.96, positioned below its 5-day ($52.41), 10-day ($53.14), 20-day ($55.09), and 50-day ($57.44) moving averages, confirming the recent pullback. However, MAN remains above both its 100-day ($48.45) and 200-day ($38.99) moving averages, indicating the longer-term uptrend is still intact.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $52.41 | 50-Day MA | $57.44 |
| 10-Day MA | $53.14 | 100-Day MA | $48.45 |
| 20-Day MA | $55.09 | 200-Day MA | $38.99 |
The technical picture presents a mixed setup for earnings. While the stock has pulled back approximately 9.5% from its 50-day moving average and lost short-term momentum, it remains in a confirmed longer-term uptrend with substantial gains from the 200-day average. The recent weakness could provide a more attractive entry point for bulls if earnings deliver, but the deteriorating near-term momentum suggests the stock may be vulnerable to further downside if results or guidance disappoint. Key resistance now sits at the 50-day moving average of $57.44, while support appears at the 100-day average of $48.45.