According to Woofun AI, although rumors of a merger between Tesla (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US), which are also controlled by Elon Musk, are heating up, Barclays (BCS.US) analyst Dan Levy aggressively predicted that the two companies would join hands as early as December this year, but the forecast market reacted lukewarm to this, and the probability of a short-term merger was priced at a very low level.
The core logic of the merger is to achieve vertical integration of AI technology. Levy speculates that the news may be announced in early December, before Tesla's (TSLA.US) annual shareholders' meeting. However, if the process is delayed until October or even early November, obtaining authorization will face serious challenges. In terms of governance structure, SpaceX (SPCX.US) uses a dual class structure of Class A shares and Class B shares, and 1 Class B share has voting rights for 10 Class A shares; Elon Musk controls SpaceX (SPCX.US) with about 85% of voting power after the IPO.
In contrast, Tesla (TSLA.US), the June 2026 document showed that its voting power was 19.9%, which is lower than the 25% target it had sought. At the 2025 shareholders' meeting, 11% of the unvoted votes were viewed as negative because brokers did not vote, highlighting insufficient shareholder participation. Critics have warned that further concentration of voting rights could weaken shareholder interests. On Wednesday night, SPCX shares fell to $148.99 (down 2.08%) and TSLA fell to $363.31 (down 1.05%), even though Elon Musk emphasized that the two sides have developed in-depth cooperation in various fields.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, predicting that the market is cautious about the consolidation timeline. SpaceX (SPCX.US) acquired xAI in February of this year, with a valuation of $1.25 trillion, but the merger expectations of Tesla (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) are very different. According to the Kalshi platform, the probability of the two companies merging is only 19%; the probability of merging before May 2027 is 52%, rising to 71% before 2028. Polymarket data also confirms this trend: the probability of consolidation by the end of December 2026 was 24%, and it did not reach 63% until December 31, 2027. This suggests that the market favors long-term consolidation rather than short-term surprise attacks.
Analysts' aggressive predictions are in stark contrast to the cold treatment of the market, reflecting the complexity of governance and the deep resistance of shareholder games. This is another critical test facing Elon Musk's imperial expansion following the xAI merger and acquisition. The short-term merger window may be difficult to open.