The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday, US retail sales in September were 745 billion US dollars, up 0.8% month-on-month, higher than market expectations of 0.3%; up 6.3% year-on-year. The US Department of Commerce also revised the August month-on-month increase from 1.1% to 1.3%. Excluding automobile and gasoline sales data, retail sales increased 0.2% month-on-month in September.
The increase was highly concentrated in energy and food. According to itemized data, of the monthly increase of about 5.7 billion US dollars in September, gas stations contributed about 4.1 billion US dollars, accounting for about 71%; food services contributed about 1 billion US dollars, accounting for about 18%. Together, the two account for about 90% of the increase. In September, gas station sales increased 6.4% month-on-month and 28.1% year-on-year.
Excluding automobiles, parts, and gas stations, retail sales increased only 0.2% month-on-month and 5.0% year-on-year, indicating that with the exception of energy expenditure driven by prices, the rest of the consumer spending momentum was relatively moderate. Among the segments, automobiles and parts increased 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year; non-store retailers (including online shopping) increased 0.3% month-on-month and 8.2% year-on-year; and catering services increased 1.1% month-on-month and 7.0% year-on-year.
Retail sales are nominal values, and price changes are not excluded. The increase in energy prices on nominal sales is not equal to actual consumption growth. Inflation is strong at the same time as consumption data. The September CPI announced the previous day rose 3.7% year on year and the core CPI rose 2.6%, both higher than market expectations; the September PPI announced on the same day rose 6.3% year on year, which was also higher than the forecast of 5.3%.
According to CME's “Federal Reserve Watch” tool, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 66.8%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 33.2%, up from 22.1% the previous day; the probability of a cumulative increase of at least 25 basis points in December is close to 90%. The Federal Reserve raised the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% on September 16.