The Oxford Institute of Economics said that India may raise fuel prices moderately in November. This is one of the few price adjustment windows before key state elections early next year. Alexandra Herman Prasad, chief economist at the Oxford Institute of Economics, wrote in a research report on Thursday: “We believe that November will be the last actual window for increasing retail oil prices until election campaigns heat up in early 2027.” A total of 7 states will hold elections next year, including key states such as Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. 5 of these 7 states will vote between March and May. The increase in fuel prices this time is about half of the cumulative increase of 7.5% in May. May was the only time that India raised retail oil prices due to the Middle East conflict. Herman Prasad said that this price adjustment may push retail inflation to 6.2% in the October-December quarter and 6.5% in the first quarter of 2027. This figure will break through the 2%-6% inflation target range set by the Reserve Bank of India. The forecast from the Oxford Institute of Economics is higher than the Bank of India's forecast, and there are differences in judging trends. In its monetary policy assessment earlier this month, the Bank of India expected inflation of 6% for the October-December quarter, falling back to 5.7% in January-March next year. Meanwhile, Oxford's model shows that price pressure will increase next year.

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