According to Woofun AI, MSCI (MSCI.US), the world's authoritative index compiling agency, is conducting a comprehensive evaluation of the screening rules for “non-operating companies” (non-operating companies). This move directly targets listed companies such as Strategy (MSTR.US) and Metaplanet that rely on capital market financing to continue to accumulate bitcoins, facing unprecedented uncertainty about their index qualifications.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, judging from the details of the rules and schedule, the MSCI (MSCI.US) consultation and feedback period ended on September 30, and the final results are expected to be announced on October 16 at the latest; if the new plan is adopted, it will be officially implemented during the index review in November 2026. Currently disclosed materials do not reveal the final exclusion decision, but the proposed rules set out a strict two-step screening mechanism: first determine whether the issuer has substantial operating assets; companies that fail the initial screening are required to undergo five financial ratio tests. If four of these items meet the exclusion criteria, they will be ineligible for the disqualification index.
For existing constituent stocks, MSCI (MSCI.US) proposed thresholds and time buffer requirements, which stipulate that they must not pass the screening for two consecutive periods before they are removed. Therefore, even if the new approach is implemented in November, the timing of the specific company's exit will still depend on final rules, financial data, and buffering arrangements. According to simulation results disclosed around this plan, Strategy (MSTR.US), Metaplanet, and uranium investment company Yellow Cake will be excluded from the MSCI (MSCI.US) Global Investable Market Index (ACWI IMI) based on data from May 2026.
While this result cannot be considered an established list of adjustments, it clearly reflects the potential impact of the programme.
Changes in index eligibility will trigger a chain reaction in the market transmission mechanism, directly affecting the capital flow of passive funds and active funds. After the company is eliminated, passive funds that copy the relevant index usually need to adjust their positions; active funds based on the index may also re-evaluate the allocation. However, the consulting plan itself is not sufficient to estimate the sales amount. The actual capital flow depends on the weight of individual stocks in the relevant indices, the free circulation ratio, the size of the tracking capital, and transaction arrangements. Early market trading and adjusting expectations may also spread the price impact before the official effective date. For Bitcoin reserve companies, what is more noteworthy is the ripple effect on the financing side. Strategy (MSTR.US) and Metaplanet raise funds by issuing shares and other capital market instruments, and then use part of the funds to increase their Bitcoin holdings.
If potential index adjustments depress share prices and reduce liquidity, the conditions for additional financing may worsen: raising the same amount of capital would require issuing more shares or providing investors with higher returns. This change is also related to the stock's premium relative to Bitcoin's net asset value. When the market is willing to pay an additional premium for the company's Bitcoin holdings, the company may issue shares on more favorable terms. After the premium narrows, the increase in Bitcoin holdings per share from new financing may decrease; when conditions are unfavorable, it may also increase shareholder dilution pressure. This is a potential transmission path; it doesn't mean that index exclusion will necessarily cause companies to sell Bitcoin; the ultimate impact also depends on financing instruments, cash reserves, and debt arrangements.
Empirical evidence of position data further reveals the complexity of investment logic. Strategy (MSTR.US)'s second-quarter earnings report shows that as of July 26, the company held 843,775 bitcoins, with a market value of about US$54.77 billion based on the reference price used in the financial report. This data is for a specific date and does not represent the current position size. Metaplanet's official tracking page shows that it holds 44,000 bitcoins as of September 30, an increase of 1,000 compared to 43,000 at the end of June. Of the materials provided by users, 43,000 pieces are already of an earlier caliber. This position data helps to understand the company's asset structure, but whether it can ultimately maintain index eligibility still depends on how operating assets, cash flow, and financing activities fall into the final testing framework.
A more favorable situation is when MSCI (MSCI.US) revises or abandons the plan, or the relevant company passes the final test to avoid an immediate exit from the index. Even if it is removed, active funds may accept some passive sales. The unfavorable situation is that the final rule triggers elimination after the buffer period, putting pressure on liquidity and valuation premiums at the same time, further weakening financing efficiency and slowing down the accumulation of Bitcoin. Therefore, in the future, we first need to pay attention to the final threshold, buffering arrangements applicable to existing constituent stocks, and specific adjustment lists and implementation dates. Until this information is clear, any estimates of large capital outflows need to be viewed with caution. As far as the investment logic of such companies is concerned, the question will fall further on the capital market: in addition to Bitcoin price fluctuations, can they continue to raise capital on favorable terms and turn new positions into an increase in value per share?