The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that global memory chip stock price fluctuations have recently intensified, and the performance has been significantly weaker than other sectors since October. Apart from macroeconomic disturbances (rising crude oil prices fluctuate, inflation and interest rate expectations rise again), the industry has also become more concerned about the progress of Changxin Technology's 4F² technology. The main reason is market concerns: local Chinese fabs have formed effective technical breakthroughs in the high-margin server DDR5 market, and the narrative logic of overseas giants maintaining high bargaining power through monopoly production capacity will be shaken. Judging from the progress of the industry, DRAM technology is still mainly based on the 6F² unit structure. The implementation of 4F² technology depends on the progress of Samsung Electronics and Changxin Technology. At present, 4F² technology is still in the early stages of verification. In the future, it is still necessary to observe the company's various indicators such as yield, production, gross profit margin, and downstream customer certification in this field. The impact on the short to medium term storage industry is relatively small. It is recommended to focus on investment opportunities for companies in HDD, DRAM, and NAND tracks.
CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:
The storage market fluctuates more, and the market is concerned about the progress of 4F² DRAM.
1) Global memory chip stock price fluctuations have intensified recently. Since October, the stock price performance has been significantly weaker than that of other sectors. Apart from macroeconomic disturbances (crude oil price fluctuations and rising inflation and interest rate expectations), the industry has also become more concerned about the progress of Changxin's 4F² technology.
2) At the 4th Integrated Chip and Core Conference on October 10, Changxin Technology announced that key progress has been made in 4F² DRAM architecture research and development. It is expected to launch a new DDR5 RDIMM product incorporating 4F² architecture+hybrid bonding technology by the end of 2026. The market is concerned about the changing global DRAM competitive landscape.
4F² DRAM progress: It is more a trade-off decision of industrial chain companies in terms of EUV resources, costs, etc.
1) Currently, DRAM is still mainly based on a 6F² unit structure. Korean and American companies Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron use this architecture, and rely on EUV lithography and high depth-to-width ratio capacitor processes to continuously reduce and increase bit density. Although these companies are promoting research and development of 4F² and 3D DRAM routes, 6F² is still the main force in mass production.
2) 4F² technology is progressing. Companies that are progressing faster in the industry are Samsung Electronics and Changxin Technology. According to Korean media The Elec, Samsung made the world's first 4F²+VCT workable nude film using a 10A process film in March 2026, and plans quality testing in 2027 and mass production in 2028. Changxin Technology announced at the 4th Integrated Chip and Core Conference that key progress has been made in 4F² DRAM architecture research and development. It is expected to launch the integrated 4F² architecture by the end of 2026.
3) When choosing to commercialize technology, different manufacturers mainly consider the availability of EUV, comprehensive cost considerations, etc. a) Currently, American & Korean manufacturers can still continue to reap rewards through EUV, mature 6F² platforms, and product structure optimization. The bank anticipates that if 4F² technology is switched on a large scale at this stage, it will have to bear the opportunity costs of re-verification of masks, processes, materials, equipment and customers. b) For Chinese manufacturers that cannot obtain EUV, better products can be made by switching to 4F² technology and using subsequent engineering optimizations such as etching, deposition, materials and integration.
Don't be too pessimistic or too optimistic and look at this storage cycle objectively.
Looking at it now, after Changxin Technology announced the 4F² technology commercialization plan, in addition to worrying about the peak of storage prices, the market gradually began to worry about the impact of Chinese manufacturers' technological breakthroughs on the long-term profits of subsequent US companies and Chinese enterprises. However, the bank believes that all short-term indicators indicate that storage is still in short supply, and prices are still in an upward channel. Furthermore, in response to the progress of Changxin Technology's 4F² technology, it is still necessary to observe the company's yield, production, gross profit margin, and downstream customer certification status in this field. Don't be too pessimistic or too optimistic in the short to medium term.
Risk factors: risks due to weakening macroeconomic trends; risk of downstream model capacity evolving less than expected; risk of falling short of expectations in the construction and supply of computing power; risk of commercialization of terminal applications falling short of expectations; risk of price inflation of hardware such as memory chips exceeding expectations; risk of increased industry competition; risk of insufficient bond market capacity and negative transmission of equity bonds; risk of policy and AI regulatory uncertainty, etc.
Investment Strategy:
Recently, US stock storage has fluctuated greatly. The bank believes that this is not due to the company's weak performance in the current period; mainly market concerns: 1) the growth rate of product price increases peaked; 2) After Changxin Technology announced the progress of 4F² technology, the market is worried about the impact on the long-term profits of subsequent US companies and Chinese companies after technological breakthroughs by Chinese manufacturers. Focusing on corporate fundamentals, the bank believes that storage products are still in an upward cycle of price increases. Furthermore, along with the development of AI technology and increased procurement by data center companies, the share of revenue from data center storage has steadily increased, showing the boom in AI.
Looking ahead, the bank believes that although the price increase of storage products is slowing down, considering that the storage market is expected to be in short supply in the next 1-2 years, the future is expected to support the company's increase in gross margin and profitability. With the launch of the storage company Changxie, major storage vendors are seizing production capacity with a 3-5 year LTA cooperation model, thereby targeting the needs of major customers ahead of time. At the same time, by adopting a flexible pricing mechanism, some companies set lower price limits to form strong support for the company's profitability in the future. It is expected that the volatility of the company's profits will be reduced in the future, thereby increasing the company's valuation level. It is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in segmented tracks such as HDD, DRAM, and NAND.