According to Woofun AI, although Bitcoin showed signs of a rebound around $80,000, on-chain data revealed a positive and substantial decline in buying pressure, and the market focus quickly shifted from seasonal hype to the US Federal Reserve System meeting held on the 27th to 28th. Alphractal analysis indicates that if the buying momentum continues to slow, the BTC price will face an adjustment or fluctuation trend, and the dominance of macro factors in asset pricing is being reshaped.
This shift marks a return of market sentiment from blind optimism to rational gaming. Investors need to be wary of the ripple effects caused by declining buying orders. In particular, the volatility of altcoins may increase as a result. Currently, the market is in a critical window for choosing the direction.
Minor changes in on-chain data often herald larger market turns. CryptoPotato reported on the 15th (local time) that the on-chain analysis platform Alphractal detected a downward trend in the core indicator reflecting the pressure difference between Bitcoin trading, which directly reflects the decline in upward momentum. The intraday BTC price fell to around $80,000 and then barely recovered to around $82,000. This narrow range of oscillations is typical of long and short forces sticking together. Currently, the market is paying close attention to whether this indicator will deteriorate further and turn negative. Alphractal explained that when the trading pressure difference indicator stops rising, the price usually completes the adjustment by falling or fluctuating sideways, which is a common stage in which the market accumulates strength before significant changes.
It is worth noting that the platform emphasizes that the current decline in the indicator alone is not enough to determine that a strong selling signal has been established, but if the indicator falls for several days and eventually turns negative, it means that sellers have fully taken control of the market initiative, and the risk of falling prices will increase significantly. Alphractal founder João Wedson is cautious about this. He believes that the current decline in buying strength is not an isolated phenomenon, but rather an early sign of changes in the market structure. Investors need to closely follow the subsequent evolution of this indicator to determine whether to enter a real adjustment cycle.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the decline in Bitcoin buying momentum may have a more profound impact on the altcoin sector. João Wedson further pointed out that if the median yield of the top 100 altcoins by market capitalization surpasses Bitcoin, their subsequent volatility will often increase significantly, and this relatively strong state of relative strength is usually difficult to sustain. Judging from the historical cycle, there is a structural shift in market trends about every 60 days, and during the transition period, capital is often withdrawn from high-risk assets to safe-haven or more liquid assets such as Bitcoin and stablecoins.
This fund rotation mechanism shows that when Bitcoin itself is not enough to buy, the speculative rise of altcoins lacks a solid foundation and can easily trigger a sharp correction. Therefore, the current high volatility of altcoins is not an independent market, but rather a result of pressure transmission from the Bitcoin market. Investors need to be extra wary when allocating altcoins, because once Bitcoin purchases continue to run out, the decline in altcoins may far exceed that of mainstream coins. The 60-day cycle suggests that the market may be at a critical point in a new round of capital reallocation, and stablecoins and BTC will become major safe havens in the short term.
At the same time, expectations of the “October Bull Market” (Uptober), which the market has long believed, are being falsified by reality. Bernardo Brittes, co-founder and CEO of TraceFinance, pointed out to CryptoPotato that although there have been 10 increases in October in the past 13 years, this statistical sample size was small, and the market environment at the time was driven by individual investor sentiment and leveraged trading, which was fundamentally different from the current institutional-dominated market structure.
More importantly, last year broke the record of 6 consecutive October gains, which marked the failure of seasonal rules. Britts stressed that the current price of Bitcoin is determined more by macro-fundamental factors such as ETF capital flows, interest rate levels, and the trend of the US dollar, rather than simply seasonal factors.
This means that the strategy of trading based on historical monthly performance is no longer applicable, and the market pricing logic has been fundamentally restructured. Investors may suffer significant losses in the face of macroeconomic shortfalls if they stick to the old perception that “October will rise”. Currently, the market needs to pay more attention to actual capital flows and policy expectations rather than the monthly label on the calendar.
Currently, Bitcoin's pricing logic has been completely restructured, and the key variables focus on macroeconomic policies and funding. Britts believes that the most important variable this month is the upcoming US Federal Reserve System meeting on the 27th to 28th. Whether the market can rise in October will depend entirely on the policy results of that meeting. Interest rate decisions and dollar movements will directly determine the direction of ETF capital flows, which in turn will affect the BTC price. Seasonality has become insignificant in the face of macro forces, and the market is shifting from being driven by emotions to being driven by fundamentals. Investors need to pay close attention to the details of the Federal Reserve meeting to deal with potential policy shocks. As the double pressure of buying exhaustion and macroeconomic shift is compounded, market volatility may further increase. Investors need to adjust their strategies from chasing ups and downs to value assessments based on macro logic to find definitive opportunities in an uncertain market.