Dahua Jixian released a research report saying that under the assumption that the average sales price of Ganfeng Lithium would be lowered, the target price would be lowered from HK$75 to HK$28, and the rating would be downgraded from “buy” to “hold.” The bank pointed out that the lithium carbonate futures contract due in January 2027 closed at RMB 104,740 per ton on October 12, a decrease of 11.8%, the first time since the end of December 2025 that it closed below RMB 110,000 per ton. According to the report, the futures contract has declined by more than 37% since the beginning of September 2026, falling close to the high of more than 200,000 yuan per ton in mid-May. It is mainly due to an increase in market supply expectations rather than weakening current demand; the bank expects global demand for lithium carbonate to reach 2.6 million tons in 2027, maintaining a balance between supply and demand. The bank expects Ganfeng Lithium's net profit for the third quarter to be 1.75 billion yuan, down 28% from quarter to quarter, while lowering its full-year profit forecast 22% to 7.214 billion yuan.

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