The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Merchants Securities released a research report saying that valuations are low and that they are concerned about price catalysis during peak seasons. The anti-domestic policy trend continues, overall competition in the industry is manageable, and profits are expected to continue to grow at a high rate. Currently, the industry's valuation cost performance ratio and medium- to long-term allocation value are still high. Short-term suggestions are to focus on price catalysis in core grain-producing regions during the peak season. Recommended targets: Zhongtong Express-W, Yuantong Express, Shentong Express, SF Holdings.
The main views of China Merchants Securities are as follows:
This month's focus: orderly competition in the industry, gradual optimization of the pattern, and valuation repair opportunities driven by performance growth.
Express delivery industry core data: In August 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of business volume slowed. The national express delivery business volume reached 16.60 billion units, up 2.7% year on year, and the growth rate decreased 1.4 pct month on month; single ticket price increased by 7.66 yuan, up 4.0% year on year, and growth rate increased 0.2 pct month over month; revenue, express delivery business revenue reached 127.15 billion yuan, up 6.9% year on year, and the growth rate decreased 1.2 pct month on month.
Express delivery industry data by region: In August 2026, the east/central/western sectors achieved express delivery business volume of 115/33/1.7 billion units, with year-on-year changes of +1.1%/+5.9%/+8%, respectively; the revenue of express delivery services above the east/central/western scale was 8.1/6/7.9 yuan, respectively, +5.3%/+1.6%/+0.8% year-on-year; the eastern, central and western regions achieved revenue of 937.1/198.3/13.6 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +6.5%/+7.5% /+ 8.9%
Express delivery industry data by product: In August 2026, same-city, offsite and international (including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) achieved express delivery business revenue of 62.7 billion yuan, 603.0 and 13.29 billion yuan, respectively; same-city, offsite and international (including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) achieved express delivery business volume of 12.5, 150.3 and 320 million units respectively, with year-on-year changes of -5.8%, +3.7% and -6.8%, respectively; same-city, offsite and international (including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) express delivery business revenue was 5.02, 4.01 and 41.53, respectively Yuan, with year-on-year changes of +10.7%, +0.2%, and +21.0%, respectively.
Consumption data: In January-August, the total net sales volume of social zero reached 32.76 trillion yuan, up 1.1% year on year; of these, online retail sales of physical products reached 8.42 trillion yuan, up 4.3% year on year; corresponding to January-August, the cumulative e-commerce penetration rate reached 25.7%, up 0.7 pct year on year.
Core data of listed express delivery companies: differentiation in business volume growth. In August 2026, SF Feng/Yuantong/Yunda/Shentong completed express delivery business volume of 12.9/28.4/21.10/2.53 billion tickets, with year-on-year growth rates of -8.5%/+12.9%/-2.1%/+18.0% (including the impact of merger Danniao logistics, same below); single ticket prices, single ticket revenue for SF Feng/Yuantong/Yunda/Shentong in August was 14.3/2.1/2.1 yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +7.8%/-4.7%/+10.3.4%, +10.3.4% The month-on-month ratio was -1.0%/-0.5%/-0.9%/+3.4%; revenue, in August, SF, Yuantong/Yunda/Shentong achieved express delivery business revenue of 184/58/45/5.4 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.4%/+8.0%/+8.4%/+21.9%, respectively; market share of the SF Feng/Yuantong/Yunda/Shentong business volume in August was 7.7%/17.1%/12.7%/15.3%, respectively. The year-on-year changes were -1.0/+1.5/-0.6/+2.0pct, respectively. + 0.0/+0.1/-0.1/+0.0pct
[Investment Suggestions]
Investment view: Low valuations, focus on price catalysis during peak season. Judging from monthly and weekly data, in August 2026, express delivery business revenue increased 6.9% year on year, and express delivery business volume increased 2.7% year on year; of these, express delivery business completed 16.60 billion units in August, up 2.7% year on year, and express delivery business revenue reached 127.15 billion yuan, up 6.9% year on year. From September 28, 2026 to October 4, 2026, the express delivery volume was 3.38 billion units, down 9.1% from the previous month, up 3.5% year on year; delivery volume was 3.44 billion units, down 9.9% month on month and 2.2% year on year.
The anti-domestic policy trend continues, overall competition in the industry is manageable, and profits are expected to continue to grow at a high rate. Currently, the industry's valuation cost performance ratio and medium- to long-term allocation value are still high. Short-term suggestions are to focus on price catalysis in core grain-producing regions during the peak season.
Recommended targets: Zhongtong Express-W (02057), Yuantong Express (600233.SH), Shentong Express (002468.SZ), SF Holdings (002352.SZ).
(The original text did not give a target price for individual stocks)
[Risk Reminder]
Price wars have worsened, franchisee outlets have been unstable, macroeconomic growth has declined sharply, costs have risen sharply, and international trade policies have changed drastically.