The Zhitong Finance App learned that Orient Securities released a research report saying that the year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports reached new highs in September 2026. In dollar terms, exports and imports grew by 36.3% and 31%, respectively (25% and 28.2%, respectively, in the month of August, and the same). Taken together, after the effects of extreme weather subsided, the boom in technology, European shipping, and strong import demand from the US jointly promoted September exports to resonate with technology and tradition. Looking ahead, the bank remains largely unchanged: supported by technological demand and some rush demand, short-term export readings before December may have some support.
Orient Securities's main views are as follows:
The year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports reached new highs in September 2026. In dollar terms, exports and imports grew by 36.3% and 31%, respectively (25% and 28.2%, respectively, in the month of August, and the same). On the face of it, exports hit a year-on-year high in September as a result of the resonance between technology and traditional exports.
The decline in extreme weather effects was one of the important factors for the sharp rebound in export volume in September. According to estimates from weekly frequency data, the monitoring port completed container throughput of about 308.45 million TEUs in September this year, a monthly high since 2023, and even surpassed the scale of rush shipments before the Spring Festival in previous years. The month-on-month increase also hit a new high since 2023. As a result, exports of almost all key commodities rebounded year-on-year in the current period (with the exception of some commodities such as rare earths and steel), including integrated circuits. Furthermore, the PMI data also confirms that the domestic supply chain has been significantly repaired in September.
However, after ruling out extreme weather factors, the trip still saw three core clues:
The driving effect of the AI technology chain has further increased. In September, exports from the high-tech industry increased 63.6% (57.1%) year on year, reaching a new high. South Korea's exports also reached a record high, which collectively indicates that current demand for technology remains high. Among them, exports of integrated circuits increased 136% (129.8%) year on year in September. On the one hand, it was supported by volume due to the decline in extreme climate, and on the other hand, the pressure on the price base was not obvious (it is expected to begin to appear only in the fourth quarter). In this context, China's exports to the major economies in the electronics industry chain, such as ASEAN, India, and South Korea, all reached record year-on-year highs, at 52.3%, 68.2%, and 47.8% (30.2%, 49.3%, 16.9%), respectively; exports to Hong Kong, China, an electronic transit hub, also declined only slightly year over year (51% in September and 63.7% in August).
The fundamentals of demand in the US are strong, and the import demand for traditional light consumer goods is strong. In September, China's exports of traditional goods increased 25.7% (14.2%) year on year. Among them, the contribution of traditional consumer goods (light industrial products such as clothing, shoes and hats, and some post-real estate products such as furniture) cannot be ignored. The year-on-year growth rate was as high as 26.5% (12.2%). Looking at regional distribution, the US may be the main contributor. Exports to the US increased by 39.6% (34.4%) year on year in September, and the two-year contract ratio also rose sharply from -5.2% to 0.9%, indicating that the contribution did not entirely stem from the base figure; US consumer import demand did show some resilience.
Demand from the EU is relatively lackluster, but before a new round of policies is introduced in December, relevant companies may take measures to grab exports. Exports to the EU rebounded sharply in September, slightly exceeding expectations, and the year-on-year growth rate rebounded to 25.3% (6.6%). However, the bank expects that the correlation with economic fundamentals is weak. Although the EU's recent PMI performance is good, judging from the breakdown, AI and the defense and military industry are the two major supports (which can also be confirmed by the industrial confidence segment), and the correlation with the residential sector is limited. At the same time, the bank has not observed a significant increase in the willingness of EU companies to replenish stocks, and the automobile industry is no exception. More likely, the company wants to ship early before the uncertainty of the Sino-European negotiations and the EU Leaders' Summit in October comes to fruition. Accordingly, automobile exports rebounded sharply in September, with a year-on-year increase of 62% (43%). The bank estimates in the “Foresight of Sino-European Economic and Trade Negotiations: Exploring the Path to Dynamic Balance in Foreign Trade” that currently about 21-22% of China's exports to Europe are threatened by relevant measures. If export grabbing is involved, the overall scale may also be large.
Imports also reached a record high in September. In terms of kinetic energy, there are two main points: one is the year-on-year growth rate of imports of crude oil, natural gas, etc.; the other is electronic chain-related products, such as automatic data processing equipment in mechanical and electrical products.
Taken together, after the effects of extreme weather subsided, the boom in technology, European shipping, and strong import demand from the US jointly promoted September exports to resonate with technology and tradition. Looking ahead, the bank remains largely unchanged:
Supported by technological demand and some rush demand, short-term export readings before December may have some support. Future risks mainly focus on “carbon-based” products in the non-petrochemical chain. On the one hand, repeated conflicts between the US and Iran may cause investment in traditional global economic sectors to slow down, affecting export demand for traditional midstream equipment; general machinery and equipment exports remained basically unchanged year on year in September, in stark contrast to the relatively rapid growth in exports of consumer goods and products related to technology investment. On the other hand, there is still a downside risk of global consumption momentum. The US has sufficient energy supply, compounded by strong AI economic support. Even if repeated conflicts between the US and Iran and fluctuations in oil prices cause disturbances, its consumption momentum may remain resilient, but it may be different from the US region.
[Risk Reminder]
The situation in Iran deteriorated markedly, and the global economy fell into recession; changes in assumptions affected the calculation results.