The Zhitong Finance App learned that preliminary data from IDC's Global Mobile Quarterly Tracking Report shows that in the third quarter of 2026, the global smartphone market fell sharply by 22.0% year on year, with shipments of only 255.3 million units. Shipments fell 22% year-on-year in the current quarter, the biggest year-on-year decline in a single quarter since statistics were available. The memory chip crisis driven by the AI wave continues to impact the smartphone industry. The price of core components has skyrocketed to historic highs, and supply chain supply continues to be under pressure.
Nabila Popal, senior research director for global equipment at IDC, said, “The market downturn, which the industry had anticipated until now, was fully realized in the third quarter of this year. Shipments recorded the biggest drop in history of 22% year on year. But that's not the worst. Various available data indicate that the market has not yet bottomed out. The price of memory chips has soared by about 350% compared to last year, and is still in an upward channel, and manufacturers' profit margins and shipping scale are under tremendous pressure. Although the price increase of memory chips has slowed, the month-on-month increase fell back to a double-digit low this quarter, and the month-on-month increase in previous quarters reached 50%-100%; however, the cost of the remaining key components remained high, further exacerbating the industry's difficulties.” IDC predicts that the growth of the global mobile phone market will remain limited in 2027, and that market recovery will take as early as 2028. More importantly, major mobile phone manufacturers have gradually realized that the cost pattern of the industry has undergone a permanent structural transformation. Despite the challenging future of the industry, periods of market turbulence will also spawn new winners, and the importance of product strategy and technological innovation has been raised to an unprecedented level. Vendors that can adjust product positioning, pricing strategies, and market-driving measures for a high-cost environment will have a better chance of increasing their market share.
Francisco Jeronimo, vice president of global devices at IDC, said, “The third quarter fully revealed the impact and damage caused by the memory chip crisis. The pressure has been transmitted from upstream manufacturers to end consumers. After the terminal price increased, many users chose to continue using their old phones and postpone replacing them. Chinese mobile phone brands are currently in a particularly difficult situation. Their large number of low-end models have to make trade-offs between maintaining profits and maintaining the scale of shipments against the backdrop of weakening market demand. Over the next few quarters, overall shipments will remain under pressure; while manufacturers with scale advantages, stable supply chains, and a high proportion of high-end products will continue to seize share in the overall contraction market.”
Kiranjeet Kaur, IDC's associate research director for global devices, stated, “The manufacturer rankings are generally similar to the previous quarter. The share of Samsung and Apple continues to rise, and the decline in shipments of Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo has further intensified. In the face of rising prices, if consumers have to switch phones, instead of sitting back and waiting for prices to drop, they should focus on the year-end promotion season. At that time, the intensity of promotional offers is expected to reach a high point throughout the year. Despite weak overall sales, some manufacturers anticipate that the annual supply of components will be further tightened and have already raised their production plans. If demand for terminals continues to be sluggish, there may be an inventory backlog in 2027, which will bring new downside risks to our industry predictions for 2027.”
