According to Woofun AI, liquidity fluctuations caused by the US Treasury's bond repurchase operation are becoming the core variable driving the inverse linkage between Bitcoin prices and 10-year US Treasury yields. The market urgently needs to clarify whether the two are causal or simultaneous coincidence.
Macro data showed significant differentiation. The 40-year US Treasury yield hit a low of 5.06%, down 0.13 percentage points from the previous value; at the same time, PPI rose 1.3% year on year in September, the biggest monthly increase since March 2022. A sharp contraction in risk appetite led to the withdrawal of capital from technology stocks. US chip stocks evaporated a market value of 1.64 trillion US dollars in six trading days, and investors poured into bonds to take refuge. This is in stark contrast to Wednesday's trend: the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.33%, BTC fell about 2% on the same day, and hit a 24-hour low of $79,806 at the beginning of the decline in yields.
However, as yields declined further, BTC rebounded strongly by 3% from the below $80,000 range, and CoinGecko data showed that its price had returned above $82,000 at noon New York time.
Historical operation records provide empirical support for this linkage. The US Treasury announced on August 19 that it would at least double the size of long-term bond repurchases, then yields declined, and BTC surged about 7% on the same day. The department usually buys back between 1:40 p.m. and 2 p.m. ET. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, BTC still fell 1% six hours after the repurchase ended on September 10, but rose 0.4% and 1.3%, respectively, after the repurchase on September 24 and October 8. Even against the backdrop of BTC's recovery on Thursday, $6 billion of capital participated in the purchase, verifying the direct injection effect of the buyback on liquidity.
Three repurchase operations alone are not enough to completely deconstruct the complex coupling between yield trends, dollar trends, capital flows, and market liquidity, but traces of intervention by the Ministry of Finance are clearly visible. The next key verification window is the repurchase operation on October 27 and the refinancing operation on November 4. These two major nodes will determine whether liquidity logic will continue to dominate asset pricing.