The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report that predicts the operating revenue of Easy Control Smart Driving (07687) 2026-2028 to be 18/25/3.2 billion yuan, an increase of 28%/37%/28% year-on-year; considering the company's leading position and growth potential, the company's reasonable market value is HK$14.7 billion (target price HK$97.49), corresponding 5 times the 2027 P/S, initial coverage, giving it a “buy” rating; the bank believes that the penetration rate of unmanned mining cards has increased, and the company's overseas and asset-light strategy is worth looking forward to.
Guosheng Securities's main views are as follows:
Easy Control Intelligent Driving is a leading commercial vehicle intelligent driving enterprise in China, with closed mining areas as the core scenario
In 2020, the company first chose the TaaS model to own its own driverless mining truck fleet to charge service fees based on the amount of services (such as transportation volume) provided to customers, cultivate customer usage habits and build trust. In 2023, the company began to launch the ATAaS model where customers own the vehicle fleet to promote asset-light operations. As of 2026H1, the company has more than 3,100 unmanned mining cards in operation. Based on the size of the unmanned mining truck fleet in operation, the company's market share exceeds 53%, leading the industry.
Industry analysis: Combining low cost and high security, penetration rate is expected to increase rapidly
Due to frequent accidents in mining areas, poor and remote environments, aging labor, and low economic benefits, mining is actually unsuitable for manual work. The bank estimates that compared to manned mining cards, the labor cost of a single unmanned mining card can be reduced by 460,000 yuan/year. If it is a pure electric unmanned mining card, it can further save about 200,000 yuan in energy consumption costs, and the economic benefits are strong. The national policy also strongly supports unmanned mining areas, and the penetration rate is expected to increase rapidly in the future. Frost & Sullivan expects sales of unmanned mining cards in China to increase from 4,500+ units in 2026 to about 15,000 units in 2030, CAGR 34.4%; the penetration rate of unmanned mining cards in China will rise from 4.4% in 2025 to 41.3% in 2030, and the sales penetration rate will gradually increase from 12.1% in 2025 to 52.1% in 2030. The global market for driverless solutions in mining areas is expected to reach about 50 billion yuan by 2030.
Competitive advantage: Know the car, understand the mine, understand the algorithm, and deeply bind customers and leading card positions
1) Capability: The company developed the industry's first 100-ton electric driverless mining truck wire-controlled electronically controlled chassis platform. The wire control platform “Imperial Stone” is suitable for 100+ models, including brands such as Tongli, Forestry Heavy Machinery, Yutong, and Beibei Co., Ltd. The failure rate is less than 5%, and the measured fuel saving rate is stable at 20% +. The models cover wide-body vehicles and rigid mining trucks. The core management is deeply involved in the mining area, covering minerals including coal mines/metal mines/limestone mines, and has normalized unmanned use of 60 vehicles at the Julong Copper Mine above 5,000 meters above sea level, setting an industry benchmark for extreme operating conditions. The algorithm has excellent perception and interaction capabilities.
2) Customers: Backed by downstream industrial capital such as Shanghang State-owned Assets and Zijin Mining, the company also received strategic support from industry shareholders such as Ningde Era, Tongli, and Xugong. The solutions were deployed in 30 mines operated by leading mining groups such as China Energy Group, China Power Investment Corporation, TBEA, Zijin Mining, Shougang Group, Guanghui Energy, and Baowu Group. In the past few years, the company was recognized by a large number of high-quality customers, and the customer retention rate was 100% for three consecutive years.
3) Status: First-mover card advantage and economies of scale, stable leading position.
Growth driver: going overseas+light assets, large-scale replication of benchmark projects
1) The company pioneered the high-potential Australian market and has achieved all-weather operation of 6 vehicles. In terms of bicycle value, the cost of a domestic and Australian mining truck driver per year is 400,000 yuan/300+ million yuan respectively. The value anchor point of driverless driving systems has been multiplied several times in Australia, and it is expected to be more profitable in Australia in the future.
2) The 2026H1 ATaaS (asset-light) revenue share has reached 66%, and there is still room for further growth in the future. As the asset-light strategy progresses, the company's future profitability will gradually increase.
3) The company has accumulated a large number of benchmark projects. By the end of 2025, the company had deployed 42 mines. Of all 41 open pit coal mines with an approved annual production capacity of over 10 million tons in China, 19 had deployed its solutions. In 2025, there are 5 projects with a single project contributing 100 million in revenue. Relying on the implementation experience accumulated in benchmark projects in the future, it is expected that the revenue will continue to grow as customers repurchase and increase the penetration rate of single mines.
4) The mining process and operating environment of metal ores are more complicated, and the penetration rate of unmanned mine cards is slow. The Tibet Julong Copper Project, which was launched by the company in May, is the largest unmanned mining card project in a single mining area in the metal mining industry, and is expected to be replicated on a large scale in the future.
Risk Alerts
Risks where penetration rates fall short of expectations; risk of industry competition; risk of profitability improvement falling short of expectations; risk of overseas business falling short of expectations; risk of metal mine replication falling short of expectations; risk of customer concentration; risk of share ban lifting; liquidity risk; hypothetical and estimation risk.