CMC Markets (LSE:CMCX) just reported strong gains in net operating income, EBITDA, and profit before tax for the year to March 2026, tied to a clear push into institutional and B2B trading infrastructure.
CMC Markets shares now trade at £6.79, with short term share price momentum mixed after a modest 7 day gain and small setbacks over the past month and quarter. However, the year to date share price return above 120% and a very large multi year total shareholder return show that longer term sentiment around the business has been strong.
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CMC Markets now trades almost exactly in line with analyst targets after a huge year to date jump. Is that tight pricing a sign of discipline from the market, or caution that no longer fits the numbers and new B2B tilt?
Most Popular Narrative: 20% Undervalued
Against a last close of £6.79, the most followed narrative pegs CMC Markets' fair value at £8.50, which points to a material valuation gap built on its B2B and regional expansion story.
The shift at CMC Markets toward a partnership and infrastructure model for banks and neobanks, with revenue now described as driven by B2B and wholesale relationships such as ANZ, Westpac, ASB and Revolut, can create a deeper pool of institutional order flow. This can support more stable fee income and a higher mix of recurring revenue.
See why 3 investors see CMC Markets as 20% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of £8.50 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, if FY 2027 costs around £280m outpace net operating income, or if remediation issues like those seen in Australia spread, that upbeat CMC Markets narrative could crack.
Find out about the key risks to this CMC Markets narrative.
Another View: What CMC Markets' P/E Is Signalling
That £8.50 fair value narrative leans on future earnings power. A simpler yardstick tells a different story. CMC Markets trades on a P/E of 24.6x, while the UK Capital Markets group sits at 12.6x, peers at 12.2x and the fair ratio is 21.4x. That premium loads more valuation risk onto your assumptions. Does the current price leave enough room for disappointment?
To see how those P/E gaps stack up against the underlying business, and where the ratio could drift toward the fair ratio over time, check the See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown..
Next Steps
Mixed signals or a clear message from the market around CMC Markets, you do not need to take anyone else's word for it. Move quickly through the data, stress test the upbeat story against your own risk tolerance, then see how that lines up with the 2 key rewards.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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