The Zhitong Finance App learned that against the backdrop of President Trump's tariffs limiting foreign supply, US steel prices have climbed to the highest level in more than four years — this has boosted domestic producers, but has boosted the costs of US manufacturers. Hot rolled coil is a widely used form of steel and is also the benchmark price indicator in the United States. Its price continued to rise over the past year, rising 52% to $1,255 per short ton, according to Fastmarkets data. The last time this level was reached was in May 2022.
Inflation was a major challenge for Trump's Republican Party before the midterm elections; and the rise in steel prices highlighted the impact of tariffs and his efforts to revive the US steel industry. This is a good thing for domestic steel mills and steel workers, but it has become a burden for manufacturers, builders, and data center developers.
Josh Spoores, head of steel research at data and consulting firm CRU Group, said restrictions on steel imports, combined with “evolving trade policies with key partners such as Canada and Mexico, have prompted buyers to restrict import orders, causing supply shortages.”
The US is a net importer of steel, but overseas supplies arrived drastically this year. According to the American Iron and Steel Institute (American Iron and Steel Institute), imports of finished steel products fell 14% to about 13 million tons in the first nine months of 2026. As a result, the share of imports in the US domestic market fell to 16% from 19% in the same period last year.
As steel mills cut production to carry out routine maintenance, domestic supply in the US is expected to tighten further before the end of the year. According to Fastmarkets, production of more than 1 million tons is expected to be affected between September and December.
The analysis points out that steel buyers should expect prices to continue to rise gradually. The cost of ferrous scrap (ferrous scrap), which is a key raw material for steel production, is already rising, and this situation occurred in the last few months of the end of the year, earlier than in previous years. Contract negotiations between producers and customers around 2027 are currently beneficial to steel mills, and discounts are likely to be lower than in recent years.
American steel companies, including NUE.US, Cleveland Cliffs (CLF.US), and Steel Dynamics (STLD.US), are benefiting from stronger domestic pricing and weaker foreign competition. As the number one producer of this industrial metal, Nucor's stock price has increased by more than 50% this year. The section will release third-quarter results in the next few days and weeks, and analysts expect to show an increase in both sales and profit.
Steel stocks fell for a while last month after Trump announced that he would build a $15 billion Mesabi Metallics plant in Iowa (scheduled to be put into operation around the end of this decade, with an annual production capacity of 10 million tons).
American hot-rolled coils are generally the most expensive in the world, and the premium relative to the international market is expanding. Currently, its price is about two-thirds higher than in Europe, close to three times that of China.
Trump's 50% tariff on imported steel disrupted trade with Canadian producers. Cleveland Cleves, one of America's largest steel companies, said last month that it will indefinitely idle part of its Canadian subsidiary Stelco's business, which could affect up to 500 workers.
The move sparked a confrontation with the Canadian government. Canada is threatening legal action against Cleveland-Cleves over employment promises made by the company when it bought Stelco for $3.4 billion ($2.4 billion) in 2024.