According to J.P. Morgan's latest research report, CoreWeave needs to increase the annual increase in active data center power by 4 to 5 times to achieve the inflection point of positive free cash flow. The bank expects this inflection point to occur in 2030, when the ratio of activity to new production capacity will reach 4.5 times. The company's current cash deficit is due to the absolute speed of capacity expansion rather than the poor economic efficiency of individual facilities. Specifically, each additional gigawatt of production capacity requires an upfront capital expenditure of about 35 billion US dollars, while the annual revenue after stable operation is 10 billion to 15 billion US dollars, and the annual cash EBITDA is about 9.4 billion US dollars. Since CoreWeave had 0.85 GW of active electricity in early 2026, it added 1.0 GW during the year, and its activity-to-additional production capacity ratio was only 0.9 times. The company was unable to self-finance in the process of expanding the scale from 1.85 GW at the end of 2026 to 8 GW in 2030. J.P. Morgan predicts that the new annual production capacity will accelerate to 1.5 GW in 2027, 1.6 GW in 2028, 1.6 GW in 2029, and 4.5 times when 1.5 GW is added in 2030. As gigawatts of stable operations continue to accumulate, cash EBITDA from mature production capacity will rapidly expand, enough to absorb the $35 billion per gigawatt capital expenditure required for the new facility.
Zhitongcaijing · 1d ago
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According to J.P. Morgan's latest research report, CoreWeave needs to increase the annual increase in active data center power by 4 to 5 times to achieve the inflection point of positive free cash flow. The bank expects this inflection point to occur in 2030, when the ratio of activity to new production capacity will reach 4.5 times. The company's current cash deficit is due to the absolute speed of capacity expansion rather than the poor economic efficiency of individual facilities. Specifically, each additional gigawatt of production capacity requires an upfront capital expenditure of about 35 billion US dollars, while the annual revenue after stable operation is 10 billion to 15 billion US dollars, and the annual cash EBITDA is about 9.4 billion US dollars. Since CoreWeave had 0.85 GW of active electricity in early 2026, it added 1.0 GW during the year, and its activity-to-additional production capacity ratio was only 0.9 times. The company was unable to self-finance in the process of expanding the scale from 1.85 GW at the end of 2026 to 8 GW in 2030. J.P. Morgan predicts that the new annual production capacity will accelerate to 1.5 GW in 2027, 1.6 GW in 2028, 1.6 GW in 2029, and 4.5 times when 1.5 GW is added in 2030. As gigawatts of stable operations continue to accumulate, cash EBITDA from mature production capacity will rapidly expand, enough to absorb the $35 billion per gigawatt capital expenditure required for the new facility.
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