Supervisors at BHP Group (ASX:BHP) have called a strike at the Escondida copper mine in Chile after wage talks and government mediation broke down, putting fresh attention on the miner's role in global copper supply.
BHP Group shares recently closed at A$60.03, with a 1-day share price return of 3.50% that came alongside headlines about the Escondida strike. The year-to-date share price return of 31.18% and 1-year total shareholder return of 43.36% point to momentum that has built over a longer window, even with shorter term swings.
Scan how other copper and materials producers are reacting to the same supply squeeze by reviewing the hand-picked 17 top copper producer stocks alongside BHP Group today.
The strike headlines and A$60.03 share price leave only a small gap to analyst targets, yet a very wide split to some intrinsic estimates. So where might fair value for BHP Group really sit now?
Most Popular Narrative: 25% Overvalued
BHP Group last traded at A$60.03, while the leading narrative fair value of A$47.93 points to a clear valuation gap that matters more now that strike risk is in the headlines.
At A$47.93 per share, BHP Group (ASX: BHP) appears reasonably valued based on its current operating performance. For the six months to 31 December 2025, BHP reported revenue of US$27.9 billion, underlying EBITDA of US$15.5 billion and underlying attributable profit of US$6.2 billion, with an underlying EBITDA margin of 58.4%. Underlying earnings were US$1.222 per share for the half; annualising this figure and converting it at an AUD/USD exchange rate of 0.6949 implies approximately A$3.52 per share and a price-to-earnings multiple of around 13.6 times. This annualised figure assumes that the conditions experienced during the first half continue and should therefore be treated cautiously for a commodity producer.
See why 13 investors see BHP Group as 25% overvalued.
Result: Fair Value of A$47.93 (OVERVALUED)
Still, disruptions at Escondida or weaker realised commodity prices could quickly test the A$47.93 fair value narrative for BHP Group and widen today’s valuation debate.
Find out about the key risks to this BHP Group narrative.
Next Steps
Strikes, valuation gaps and conflicting narratives can make BHP Group hard to read, so move quickly and stress test the story against the underlying numbers yourself. To see both sides of that debate in one place, review the 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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