Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
ZION reports after market close, meaning Day 0 reflects anticipatory trading before results are released, while Day +1 captures the market's first full reaction to the actual earnings.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | -$0.38 (-0.53%) | $1.25 (1.74%) | -$2.84 (-3.95%) | $2.10 (2.92%) |
| 2026-04-20 | +$0.32 (+0.51%) | $1.71 (2.73%) | -$1.03 (-1.63%) | $2.41 (3.81%) |
| 2026-01-20 | -$0.53 (-0.89%) | $1.52 (2.54%) | +$2.49 (+4.21%) | $2.50 (4.23%) |
| 2025-10-20 | +$2.31 (+4.65%) | $2.32 (4.67%) | +$0.72 (+1.39%) | $1.89 (3.64%) |
| 2025-07-21 | -$0.21 (-0.37%) | $0.97 (1.71%) | +$0.26 (+0.46%) | $2.45 (4.34%) |
| 2025-04-21 | -$0.66 (-1.49%) | $1.58 (3.56%) | -$0.49 (-1.12%) | $4.39 (10.06%) |
| 2025-01-21 | +$0.99 (+1.71%) | $1.01 (1.74%) | -$0.94 (-1.59%) | $1.54 (2.61%) |
| 2024-10-21 | -$1.81 (-3.53%) | $2.28 (4.45%) | +$3.07 (+6.21%) | $1.79 (3.62%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 1.71% | 2.89% | 2.57% | 4.40% |
Historical price behavior shows ZION experiences moderate volatility around earnings releases, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 1.71% and Day +1 move of 2.57%. The intraday ranges are wider, averaging 2.89% on Day 0 and 4.40% on Day +1, indicating significant intraday volatility even when closing moves are more modest.
The direction of moves has been mixed, with no clear pattern of consistent post-earnings rallies or selloffs. The most recent quarter (July 2026) saw a modest decline of 0.53% on Day 0 followed by a larger 3.95% drop on Day +1, despite the company beating estimates. The prior quarter (April 2026) showed a small 0.51% Day 0 gain but a 1.63% Day +1 decline. However, October 2025 delivered a strong +4.65% Day 0 pop followed by additional gains.
The data suggests investors should prepare for a 2-4% move in either direction following the release, with the potential for larger swings if results or guidance significantly deviate from expectations. The recent pattern of post-earnings weakness despite beats may indicate the market is focused more on forward guidance and credit quality commentary than the headline numbers.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 11/20/26 (DTE 35) |
| Expected Move | $4.18 (6.60%) |
| Expected Range | $59.17 to $67.53 |
| Implied Volatility | 31.89% |
The options market is pricing an expected move of 6.60% through the November 20, 2026 expiration, which is significantly larger than the historical average Day +1 move of 2.57%. This elevated implied volatility suggests options traders are anticipating a more substantial reaction to this earnings report than the stock has typically delivered, possibly reflecting heightened uncertainty around credit quality, guidance, or broader sector concerns heading into the release.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic stance on ZION heading into earnings, with an average recommendation of 3.29 (between Hold and Buy) and a mean price target of $72.67—representing 14.7% upside from the current price of $63.37. The consensus has improved over the past month, with the average recommendation moving from 3.21 to 3.29, indicating growing analyst confidence.
The rating breakdown shows a divided Street: 8 Strong Buys (up from 7 a month ago) and 11 Hold ratings (down from 12), while 5 analysts maintain Sell or Strong Sell ratings (unchanged). This distribution reflects the tension between ZION's strong execution track record and concerns about the operating environment for regional banks.
Price target estimates range from a low of $64.00 to a high of $80.00, with the mean target of $72.67 suggesting analysts see meaningful appreciation potential if the bank can navigate near-term headwinds. The recent improvement in sentiment—particularly the addition of another Strong Buy rating—indicates some analysts are gaining confidence that ZION's consistent earnings beats and solid fundamentals justify a more constructive view despite sector-wide concerns.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion shows ZION in a deteriorating technical position heading into earnings. The signal currently reads 40% Sell, a significant weakening from 24% Buy just one month ago and 24% Sell last week. This rapid shift reflects mounting selling pressure and loss of momentum as the stock approaches its quarterly report.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal indicates near-term momentum has turned negative, suggesting caution for traders positioning ahead of earnings
- Medium-term (Hold): Neutral reading suggests the intermediate trend remains in balance, though the short-term weakness could spread if earnings disappoint
- Long-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal reflects underlying weakness in the longer-term trend structure
Trend Characteristics: The trend is characterized as Weak and Weakening, indicating deteriorating momentum and a fragile technical setup heading into the earnings release.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $62.61 | 50-Day MA | $66.39 |
| 10-Day MA | $62.63 | 100-Day MA | $67.20 |
| 20-Day MA | $62.93 | 200-Day MA | $63.55 |
ZION is trading at $63.37, positioned above its 5-day ($62.61), 10-day ($62.63), and 20-day ($62.93) moving averages, but below its 50-day ($66.39), 100-day ($67.20), and 200-day ($63.55) moving averages. This configuration shows the stock has stabilized in the very short term after recent weakness but remains below all meaningful intermediate-term resistance levels.
The stock is essentially testing its 200-day moving average from below, a critical technical juncture. A strong earnings report could propel ZION back above the $66-67 resistance zone defined by the 50-day and 100-day averages, while a disappointment could trigger a breakdown below the 200-day support. The overall technical setup is cautionary—the weakening momentum signals and position below key moving averages suggest the stock needs a convincing earnings beat and positive guidance to reverse the recent deterioration and attract buyers.