The Zhitong Finance App learned that SDIC Securities released a research report saying that the interest rate hike expectations have been fully interpreted, and the short-term shortfall in gold has basically cleared up. Expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike have continued to strengthen recently. The market has set a fairly adequate price for the hawkish scenario, and the price of gold may reflect the most pessimistic expectations in the short term. As the downside gradually digests, the bottom range for gold prices may have formed (3900-4200).
SDIC Securities's main views are as follows:
The downward pricing of US bond interest rates is declining, and there is room for future interest rate cuts
Judging from the forward interest rate pricing on US 10-year treasury bonds, the market has begun to reflect future economic downturns and interest rate declines. Interest rate hikes are short-term disturbances, and recessionary pressure will limit room for continued austerity. The Federal Reserve is expected to restart the interest rate cut cycle after 2028, and gold still has sufficient upward momentum in the medium to long term.
The central bank's gold purchases and ETFs continue to flow in, and the long-term gold allocation logic continues to strengthen
US dollar credit and US debt credit may have weakened for a long time. The Central Bank of China increased its gold holdings by about 23 tons in September, increasing its holdings for 23 consecutive months, with a cumulative increase of 63 tons in the third quarter, reaching a new quarterly high of nearly three years; the net inflow of global gold ETFs in September was about 10 billion US dollars, with a cumulative net inflow of 31 billion US dollars in the third quarter, and holdings reached a record high. Notably, gold prices fell 8.5% in September, and global gold ETF holdings bucked the trend and increased by 67 tons to a historic high of 4256 tons.
Focus on targets: Chifeng Gold, Shanjin International, CICC Gold, Shandong Gold, Hunan Gold, Wanguo Gold Group, etc.;
Focus on Hong Kong stock stocks: Lingbao Gold, Zijin Gold International, etc.