The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cathay Pacific Haitong Securities released a research report saying that with the arrival of the Q3 financial report, the sample bank's 26Q3 revenue and net profit growth rates are expected to be 9.1% and 5.3% respectively, compared with the 26H1 growth rates of +1.2pc and +1.2pc respectively. The revenue growth rate is expected to further strengthen, and the profit growth rate is also showing a steady, moderate and positive trend. Interest spreads are expected to remain stable month-on-month, net interest spreads have a steady trend, and deposit repricing dividends are still showing in the second half of the year. The market fluctuates greatly, and the demand for capital defense is increasing. The focus is on grasping the following directions: 1) recommending banks with both excellent performance+dividend attributes; 2) if the market style is expected to be balanced, there are allocation opportunities in the sector.
Cathay Pacific Haitong's main views are as follows:
Scale: The 26Q3 interest-bearing asset growth rate and loan growth rate are expected to be 9.9% and 6.4%, respectively, compared with the 26Q2 growth rates of -0.5pc and -0.3pc, respectively. According to the credit balance sheet data, the growth rates of bank financial institution loans and bond investments in August 2026 were 5.4% and 11.7% respectively, down 0.3 pc and 2.3 pc respectively from June 2026. Under the lackluster demand for loans, banks continued to make up for their balance through bond investment. According to the consolidated data for January-August 2026, RMB loans increased by 10.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.02 trillion yuan. Among them, corporate credit increased 0.96 trillion yuan year-on-year, and residents' credit decreased 1.74 trillion yuan year-on-year, further deleveraging.
Interest spread: The 26Q3 interest spread is expected to be 1.39%, and the net interest income growth rate is expected to be 8.8%. Both are expected to remain stable from month to month. The steady trend of net interest spreads is steady, and deposit repricing dividends in the second half of the year are still showing. Currently, the pricing of interest rates on loans is hard bound by the “anti-internal roll” and interest rate self-regulation mechanisms. Interest rates on new loans are stabilizing. In particular, the yield on stock loans of some banks is already lower than the interest rate on newly issued loans, and there is limited room for future asset-side returns.
Mid-income: The 26Q3 growth rate is expected to be 1.0%, a slight decrease of 0.2pc from the 26Q2 growth rate, and the mid-quarter revenue growth rate is slower than in the first half of the year. The popularity of the capital market declined in the third quarter, and redemption activity for related wealth management products cooled down. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of insurance companies' premium income in August 2026 slowed further to 0.4%; on the other hand, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total social zero showed a downward trend under pressure (1.1% in August). Consumption scenarios and demand for offline payments contracted, and the growth momentum of the bank card and credit card settlement business also weakened.
Other non-interest: The 26Q3 growth rate is expected to be 18.0%, up 7.0 pc from the 26Q2 growth rate due to the low base effect. The overall bond market interest rate continued to decline in the third quarter. The yield to maturity on ten-year treasury bonds fell 5 bps from June, and the full price index of Chinese bonds rose slightly by 0.4% compared to June. Considering that the base pressure for the same period last year was relatively small (profit and loss from fair value changes of listed banks was 1.9 billion yuan in 25Q2, while 25Q3 dropped sharply to -25 billion yuan due to market fluctuations), the growth rate of income related to bond investment is expected to pick up in the third quarter. In addition, the revaluation of equity investment also provided a positive boost. Changxin Technology, which is owned by the five major state-owned banks (through its AIC), was successfully listed in 26Q3. Based on the principle of prudence, it is expected that the relevant banks will use a more conservative market price valuation model to estimate and revalue the relevant equity value, which also brings a marginal incremental contribution to other non-interest income.
Asset quality: Credit costs for 26Q3 are expected to be 0.74%, an increase of 8 bps over the previous year. Against the backdrop of a recovery in revenue growth, banks may increase their impairment accrual efforts and consolidate forward-looking provisions. The loan write-off scale for the first 8 months of 2026 was 975.9 billion yuan, an increase of 149.2 billion yuan over the previous year. Banks continued to step up the write-off and disposal of non-performing assets. The non-performing ratio is expected to remain flat at 1.20%, and the provision coverage rate decreased slightly by 1.3 pc to 239.2% over the previous month. Risks in key public sector areas have continued to be mitigated, stock burdens have been continuously cleared, and retail may have revealed high risk points, but trend improvements are still needed.