The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guohai Securities released a research report saying that in terms of air cargo, global demand for cross-border air transport is still strong, and cargo and mail volume can still maintain a steady increase under pressure from high oil prices; the delivery cycle for new supply-side aircraft has been lengthened, and the net growth in the industry's capacity is limited. Under this supply and demand pattern, freight rates are expected to remain stable; at the same time, demand for cross-border air transport is expected to continue to grow as the peak Q4 air transport season approaches. If oil prices fall further, profits are expected to increase further. In terms of air passenger transport, the price of fuel-containing tickets was restored year-on-year from September to October, focusing on the improvement in supply and demand in the Q4 industry. As travel demand rebounded, supply and demand improved. Fares containing fuel in the industry continued to improve year over year from August to October, which may indicate that the industry is expected to usher in a continuous improvement in profits. Looking ahead, supply in the industry may continue to be tight in the future. The bank is optimistic that against the backdrop of a steady increase in demand, ticket prices are expected to continue to rise, and airline profits may grow. In summary, the air transport industry's “recommended” rating is maintained.
Guohai Securities's main views are as follows:
Freight: The growth rate of traffic is gradually slowing down, and freight rates have maintained year-on-year growth
1) International cargo volume increased steadily, and the year-on-year growth rate slowed. According to the latest industry data for August 2026 released by the Civil Aviation Administration, the total turnover of civil aviation cargo and mail in August was +5.4% year-on-year, and China's internal/international cargo and mail turnover was -7.0%/+8.7%, respectively. Looking at the total turnover of civil aviation cargo and mail from January to August, the total turnover of domestic and international flights was +11.0%/-2.0%/+14.5% year-on-year, respectively.
2) Q3 freight rates fell month-on-month, +21% year-on-year. According to the TAC air freight rate index, the 2026Q3 Shanghai average air freight price index was -8.9% month-on-month and +20.9% year-on-year. Among them, 7/8/9 were +23.8%/+20.7%/+18.9% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate slowed month by month. In the first two weeks of October (as of October 12), the Shanghai average air freight price index increased slightly by 0.4% compared to the central price for the whole month of September, and the monthly average increased 15.0% year-on-year compared to the central price for the full month of October last year.
Passenger transport: Deducted oil prices were corrected in early October, and crude oil prices continued to be high
1) Industry supply and demand: The average occupancy rate of the industry in August was over 88%. According to the latest industry data for August 2026 released by the Civil Aviation Administration, the industry ASK/RPK in August was +4.8%/+6.4% year on year, and the passenger occupancy rate reached 88.8%, +1.3 pct year on year, and +2.2 pct compared to the same period in 2019. Its internal and international turnover in China was +5.9%/+8.3% year-on-year, respectively.
According to the total operating data for September disclosed by the six major airlines (Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and HNA Holdings), the six airlines had +5.1% and +5.8% year-on-year respectively, with passenger occupancy rates of 86.4%, or +0.6pct year-on-year.
Among them, domestic/international and regional ASK were +3.3% and +9.4% year-on-year respectively, corresponding to RPK +3.9% and +10.7% year-on-year respectively. The corresponding passenger occupancy rates were 87.8% and 83.4%, respectively, and +0.5pct and +0.9pct, respectively.
2) Fares: In the first half of October, there was a year-on-year correction of fuel deducted ticket prices. From the beginning of October to October 15, 2026, the average domestic economy class fare was +8.9% year-on-year. The increase was greater than the year-on-year increase in September, and the fuel deducted ticket price was +1.2% year-on-year, achieving a correction; industry supply and demand improved, and ticket prices continued to recover. From January 1 to October 15, 2026, the average fuel inclusive fare for domestic flights was +6.6% year-on-year, and -1.0% year-on-year.
3) Oil remittance: Oil prices continue to be high, and domestic aviation fuel prices have rebounded. In terms of oil prices, crude oil prices remained high at around 100 US dollars from September to October 2026; from the beginning of October to October 15, the average oil price reached 103.5 US dollars/barrel, which was +61.9% compared to the monthly average central price of October 2025, and the increase in crude oil prices continued to expand compared to the increase in September. In terms of aviation fuel prices, aviation fuel prices continued to rise to 8,946 yuan/ton in October, and the year-on-year increase increased to +58.8%. In terms of exchange rate, at the end of 2025, the median USD/RMB exchange rate was 7.029. As of October 16, 2026, the median USD/RMB exchange rate was 6.722, -4.36% from the end of 2025, and -0.19% from the end of 2026Q3.
In September, the three major airlines mainly invested in international flight capacity
1) Operating conditions: Looking at the current month's situation, September 2026 entered a low season. With the exception of HNA Holdings, the capacity of all airlines (ASK) continued to grow, with Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines growing by more than 10% year over year; the three major airlines (Air China/China Southern Airlines/China Eastern Airlines, same everywhere) mainly increased capacity for international flights, and Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines mainly increased their capacity for domestic flights. In terms of passenger occupancy rate, domestic passenger occupancy rates of all airlines were above 86% in September.
According to the cumulative situation, Spring Airlines' total ASK growth rate from January to September was 13.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate of the rest of the airlines was within 5%. In terms of passenger occupancy rates, airline passenger occupancy rates for domestic and foreign routes are at a high level. With the exception of China Southern Airlines, which declined slightly year on year, the passenger occupancy rate of all other airlines at home and abroad increased year over year. The passenger seat ratio of Air China reached 3.9 pct year on year, the most significant increase.
2) Fleet introduction: In September 2026, Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and HNA Holdings introduced 1, 6, 5, and 1 airliner respectively. Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines did not introduce and exit aircraft; the six major airlines added a total of 2 airliners. Looking at the cumulative total from January to September, the six major airlines have a total net increase of 44 airliners.
Risk warning: geopolitical risk, risk of macro-environmental fluctuations, risk of travel demand falling short of expectations, risk of industry supply exceeding expectations, risk of rising ticket prices falling short of expectations, increased risk of market competition, risk of sharp rise in oil prices, risk of sharp devaluation of RMB, risk of profit forecasting.