The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that since 2026, the pace of large-scale domestic storage and installation has been slow, and the actual implementation of the project has fallen short of expectations, which clearly deviates from the tender data. The bank lowered the domestic storage capacity to 230 to 250 GWh in '26, an increase of about 21% to 32% over the same period. Looking ahead to 2027, the bank anticipates that domestic energy storage will still have momentum and potential for growth in 2027, driven by new scenarios such as lithium carbonate price reduction, increased demand in North China, Northeast China, South China, and computing power collaboration.
CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:
Since 2026, the growth rate of large domestic storage capacity has fallen short of expectations. The core is the decline in price differences between peaks and valleys in the northwest region
From January to September 2026, domestic energy storage added 35.3GW/102.3 GWh, compared to -3% and +6%. The installed growth rate fell short of expectations. The core reason was the narrowing of the peak and valley price differences in northwest China: for example, the average peak price in Mengxi fell by about 40%-47% year on year. The reason for the bank's judgment is that (1) the northwest load growth rate has been slow since this year, which has a certain relationship with economic restructuring and cool summer weather, affecting the peak intensity of electricity prices in the evening; (2) Inner Mongolia's energy storage installed capacity has reached 22GW, while the peak load of Mengdong+Mengxi is about 51GW, and nighttime energy storage discharge can no longer be ignored; (3) Wind power has become dominated by installations in the northwest, and its “reverse peak” characteristic also suppresses the evening peak.
Other important reasons include rising system operating costs, slow implementation of capacity electricity prices, and stricter and slower grid-connection approvals
System operating costs in all provinces across the country increased by an average of 3 cents/kWh compared to last year, which is equivalent to reducing the peak and valley price differences that can be obtained in actual operation of energy storage. Actual implementation of capacitive electricity prices is also slow, and there is a problem of delayed distribution. The tightening and slowing of grid-connection approval, and the obvious increase in the price of lithium carbonate in the first half of the year also had an impact.
The bank lowered the domestic storage capacity to 230 to 250 GWh in '26, an increase of about 21% to 32% over the same period.
Domestic reserves still have growth points in 2027
(1) The decline in the price of lithium carbonate is expected to boost the economy of energy storage investment. The price of lithium carbonate is about 3 cents/Wh, total investment IRR increased by about 0.5%, and capital IRR increased by about 2%; (2) Demand is shifting to North China, Northeast China, South China and other provinces. The price difference between peak and valley in Shanxi, Shandong, Hebei, and Northeast China is 0.30.4 yuan/kWh, making independent energy storage investment more economical; (3) Business models such as joint entry of new energy distribution and storage into the market and telecommunication collaboration are gradually being opened up.
Investment advice
The forecast for new domestic storage capacity was lowered to 230-250 GWh this year, but factors such as system operating costs, electricity prices, grid-connected approval, and lithium carbonate have begun to ease, and multiple factors will still drive growth next year. The domestic large storage market has moved from simply competitive growth to refined operation and maintenance capabilities and the ability to implement projects in multiple scenarios. It is recommended to focus on the layout of computer collaboration, AIDC power supply, AIDC energy storage, direct green power connection, etc., such as Haibo Sichuang, Sunshine Power, Ningde Era, and Penghui Energy.
risk analysis
1) Demand side: Domestic and foreign energy storage demand falls short of expectations, and the pace of energy transformation is slowing down. 2) Supply side: Higher lithium prices raise costs, or lower prices too quickly lead to wait-and-see sentiment in downstream. 3) Policy aspects: Overseas subsidy policies fall short of expectations, and implementation of domestic energy storage market-based policies falls short of expectations. 4) In terms of the international situation: international trade barriers have deepened, exports have been blocked; requirements for localized production have increased, and overseas factories have raised costs; international conflicts have blocked overseas transportation and increased freight rates. 5) Market side: Increased competition has led to lower gross profit margins and profitability of energy storage batteries, integrators, and PCS manufacturers than expected. 6) Technical aspects: New product development is blocked, and product convergence has led to a decline in competitiveness.