Since US President Donald Trump returned to the White House, the market feared that the US would impose tariffs on copper, triggering drastic changes in the global inventory pattern, and copper prices soared. However, as Trump's second presidential term is nearing the end, many bulls are beginning to worry that if tariffs are not implemented in the end, copper prices may plummet. Until a few weeks ago, the price of New York copper futures was higher than the global benchmark price of the London Metal Exchange copper contract, which enabled traders to make unprecedented profits by shipping copper to the US before tariffs came into effect. Meanwhile, copper continued to flow into the US, and inventories in other regions declined sharply, which also pushed LME copper prices to a record high of close to 15,000 US dollars per ton last month. But as the US midterm elections approach, investors in every market are wondering whether the strong performance of the Democratic Party will disrupt Trump's trade agenda or, on the contrary, push him to double down on the tariff strategy. For copper bullish investors, if Trump is ultimately unwilling or unable to push forward copper tariffs, the consequences could be serious. French Foreign Trade Bank analysts warned that tariff-betting transactions have formed a bubble in this market, one of the most important industrial commodities markets in the world. If the possibility of tariffs is ruled out, the bubble may burst soon. The Macquarie Group said that under such circumstances, the price of copper may fall to $10,000 per ton, but if tariffs were announced a little late, allowing traders to ship even more copper to the US, the price could also rise to $18,000. Currently, the price of LME copper is around 14,430 US dollars per ton.
Zhitongcaijing · 2d ago
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Since US President Donald Trump returned to the White House, the market feared that the US would impose tariffs on copper, triggering drastic changes in the global inventory pattern, and copper prices soared. However, as Trump's second presidential term is almost halfway past, many bulls are beginning to worry that if tariffs are not implemented in the end, copper prices may plummet. Until a few weeks ago, the price of New York copper futures was higher than the global benchmark price of the London Metal Exchange copper contract, which enabled traders to make unprecedented profits by shipping copper to the US before tariffs came into effect. Meanwhile, copper continued to flow into the US, and inventories in other regions declined sharply, which also pushed LME copper prices to a record high of close to 15,000 US dollars per ton last month. But as the US midterm elections approach, investors in every market are wondering whether the strong performance of the Democratic Party will disrupt Trump's trade agenda or, on the contrary, push him to double down on the tariff strategy. For copper bullish investors, if Trump is ultimately unwilling or unable to push forward copper tariffs, the consequences could be serious. French Foreign Trade Bank analysts warned that tariff-betting transactions have formed a bubble in this market, one of the most important industrial commodities markets in the world. If the possibility of tariffs is ruled out, the bubble may burst soon. The Macquarie Group said that under such circumstances, the price of copper may fall to $10,000 per ton, but if only tariffs were announced a little late to allow traders to ship even more copper to the US, the price could also rise to $18,000. Currently, the price of LME copper is around 14,430 US dollars per ton.
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