The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report stating that it maintains Tencent Holdings (00700)'s “superior to the market” rating and downgraded the profit forecast, and the adjusted net profit forecast for 2026-2028 is estimated to be 2554/2493/251.8 billion yuan, respectively (a decrease of -2/-9/ -12%). The company has increased investment in AI talents, etc., to supplement model research and other capabilities. The short-term company is in a heavy investment period, with the second half of 2026 and 2027 being the key investment stages. In addition to this, the company has advantages on the product side. For example, Workbuddy provides a high-value direction for Tencent's model updates, and is optimistic about Tencent's overall ecosystem capabilities.
Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:
Revenue is expected to increase 9% in the third quarter, and adjusted net profit to mother will decrease 9% year over year
In 26Q3, non-IFRS operating profit is expected to be 71.7 billion yuan, down 1% year over year. It is estimated to achieve non-IFRS net profit of 64.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%; non-ISFRS net profit margin of 31%, or -3 pct month-on-month. The gross margin of the value-added business is expected to increase by 63%, an increase of 2 pcts over the previous year. The gross margin of marketing services and fintech businesses has been growing steadily. In '26, marketing services have increased AI investment in content distribution, focusing on optimizing the accuracy of content recommendations for video accounts; rapid growth in cloud revenue will have a certain downward impact on FBS gross margin. The cost side is affected by Capex amortization, AI application investment, etc. R&D expenses have maintained a high growth rate. The management rate (including R&D) is expected to be 28%, and the growth rate will increase by 10 pcts over the same period last year.
Actively lay out a dual product matrix of C-side consumer intelligents+B-side office productivity agents
In 26Q3, the C-side WeChat native agent Xiaowei continued to expand grayscale testing. Relying on WeLM, the bottom layer added agent-to-agent cross-user agent interaction capabilities, and can call the WeChat Mini Program API to complete life service tasks. B-side office agent WorkBuddy has maintained rapid growth in user volume and retention. In September, it officially launched an open platform and connected to 100 ecosystem partners to simultaneously connect to enterprise WeChat and support human-computer collaboration for documents. According to QuestMobile data, the WorkBuddy PC client MAU in July was 6.582 million, higher than rivals QClaw (2.259 million) and TraeWork (1.904 million).
Online game business
Revenue is estimated at 67.9 billion yuan, an increase of 7% over the previous year, and overseas games are under pressure on the base. Domestic game revenue is expected to increase 11% year over year. “Wang Zhe Rongyao”'s performance remained steady, and turnover increased slightly; “Operation Delta” continued the company's steady turnover. “Wangzhe Wanxiang Chess” was launched in September. According to Qimai data, it ranked at the top of the iOS free list and reached the top 5 best sellers after opening the game. As of 10/16, it is ranked 21st in the game bestseller list. Overseas games are expected to drop -1% year over year. There is some base pressure on overseas games: investment companies merged and acquired in 2025, and their contributions increased quarterly from the first quarter to the third quarter; stand-alone game releases in the third quarter; Supercell's performance was impressive in '25, and the performance of Supercell games fluctuated in '26.
marketing services
Revenue is expected to increase by 18%. The core of growth comes from the sharp rise in the volume and price of video channels. In addition, Tencent's advertising AI tools continue to be iterated, and Miaosi 2.0 and AIM+ intelligent marketing matrices have been upgraded to improve the efficiency of advertising material production and delivery optimization. Short dramas, local lifestyle, and direct-managed e-commerce have become core marketing increases. At the same time, lightweight marketing tools for WeChat stores are being improved simultaneously to promote the penetration of closed-loop advertising in ecological transactions.
Fintech and corporate services
The year-on-year increase was 9%. In 26Q3, the bank expected revenue from fintech and corporate services to be 63.4 billion yuan, an increase of 9% over the previous year. Tencent's financial technology market was dismantled, and the main revenue came from the payment business. The payment business is related to the offline consumer market, and the bank is expected to be affected at the macro level. According to the monetary authority balance sheet issued by the central bank, non-financial institution deposits (customer reserve deposits deposited by payment institutions with the central bank) increased 7/3/7% year-on-year in 7/8/9. In terms of corporate services, due to e-commerce commissions and cloud business growth, the bank expects 26Q3 revenue to increase 25% year on year. After increasing Capex investment in 26Q2, the company will help the cloud business grow. The bank expects 26Q3 Capex 52 billion yuan, an increase of 176% year on year.
Risk Alerts
Policy risks; the risk of intense competition in the advertising industry; the risk of new games not being launched as scheduled, etc.