The Zhitong Finance App notes that Americans will vote in the midterm elections on November 3. This election will determine who will control Congress for the last two years of Trump's presidency.
The Democratic Party needs a net increase of 4 seats each in the House of Representatives and the Senate to overthrow the Republican Party's current weak majority of 218 to 214 and 53 to 47 seats.
Outsiders generally expect the Democratic Party to win control of the House of Representatives, but it is still difficult to predict where the Senate will win or lose.
Trump's approval rating is at its lowest point during his presidency, and polls generally favor the Democratic Party. This election may change Washington's power pattern. However, even if the Democratic Party wins one or both houses, Trump will retain his veto power and broad executive powers, thereby limiting the Democratic Party's ability to push for major legislation.
Analysts, strategists and economists interviewed said that regardless of the election results, a battle over raising the debt ceiling and government funding could erupt in 2027. Two economists predict a turbulent year for markets and investors.
Election officials also warned that the Trump administration could interfere in the election in a variety of ways.
Here are a few key scenarios, and what they might mean for Trump's administration, Congress, and the economy.
Scenario 1: Democrats win the House of Representatives and lose the Senate
Democratic House Majority: 5 to 20 seats
The Democratic Party controls all House committees, subpoena power, and the ability to investigate Trump and his administration.
The summoned Trump administration officials may refuse to cooperate because the Justice Department loyal to Trump is unlikely to enforce the summons.
Trump retains veto power, as well as broad powers over tariffs, immigration, and foreign policy.
Senate Republicans will block the priority agenda of most Democrats.
Democrats can pass symbolic “declaratory” bills on topics such as health care, abortion rights, housing, and AI data centers, but almost none of them will become law.
The 2027 debt ceiling dispute, budget dispute, and the threat of a government shutdown are imminent.
Impact: Democrats can investigate Trump and his administration through hearings and summons, but they cannot substantially reshape policy. Analysts expect a debt-ceiling showdown before summer, disrupting the market and making investors uneasy. Trump, who has largely circumvented Congress in the past two years, is likely to continue to advance his agenda through executive orders.
Democratic House Majority: 20 to 40 seats
The leadership has more room to absorb defections within the party and advance the Democratic Party's priority agenda.
A larger group of new lawmakers, including more progressive members, is likely to increase calls for Trump's impeachment.
Some Republicans may be more willing to break with Trump on unpopular issues such as tariffs and the Iran war.
A larger Democratic majority is likely to strengthen the Democratic Party's leverage in budget and debt ceiling negotiations, making it easier to seek concessions from the Republican Party.
The Democratic Party has more votes, and the path to passing laws relating to health care, abortion rights, and the cost of living is smoother, thus forcing Senate Republicans to make difficult votes.
Impact: Democrats are likely to pass legislation to show their intention to tackle inflation, limit Trump's right to war, and oppose data centers. But since Senate Republicans can block it, and Trump has veto power, major legislative breakthroughs are still unlikely. Trump can continue to govern through administrative means, and debt-ceiling disputes are still likely to occur.
Scenario 2: Democrats win the House of Representatives and the Senate draws 50 to 50
The Republicans still control the Senate because Vice President JD Vance can cast the key vote to break the tie.
A few senators willing to leave their party, including Pennsylvania Democrat John Feitman and some moderate Republicans, may become the “king makers” of the key vote.
Debts over the debt ceiling and budget became more unpredictable, as neither party could afford internal defections, and a few senators gained the power to influence or delay reaching an agreement.
Impact: Washington may be at an impasse, with a few swinging senators deciding the outcome of fiscal, judicial, and political struggles. With Vance's tie-breaking vote, Trump should be able to successfully pass nomination confirmation in the Senate, while his tariffs, immigration, and foreign policies are largely unfettered.
Scenario 3: Democrats win the House and Senate
Controlling the Senate is likely to have more influence than controlling only the House of Representatives, as the Senate determines judicial appointments, cabinet appointments, and ambassadors.
Democratic majority in the Senate: 2 seats
The Democratic Party controls all Senate committees and agendas.
They are likely to block many of Trump's judicial nominations and may seek to delay filling any Supreme Court vacancies until after the 2028 presidential election.
Republicans are likely to expedite approval of nominees before the new Congress takes office in January next year.
Trump retains veto power and executive power. Major legislation remains difficult because most bills require 60 votes to break through a “long debate” (filibuster), a Senate rule that allows minority parties to block or delay legislation.
Controlling both houses gave the Democratic Party more chips in debt ceiling and budget negotiations, although the risk of a fiscal impasse remains significant.
Impact: The Democratic Party has received important checks and balances on Trump's personnel appointments, but weak seat superiority, lengthy debate rules, and Trump's veto power have limited significant legislative results.
Democratic majority in the Senate: 4 to 6 seats
The leadership is less constrained by individual senators and can withstand some internal defections within the party.
The Democratic Party is more likely to pass laws on topics such as tariffs, data centers, health care, living costs, and restrictions on the president's right to war, and force Trump to veto them.
These veto disputes will help the Democratic Party set the tone for 2028.
Judicial appointments have largely come to a standstill.
Impact: Democrats have a better chance to pass laws that respond to voters' concerns about high prices, healthcare costs, and data centers, and increase pressure on Republicans. But Trump still reserves the power to block most major legislation.
With a greater advantage, voters are likely to expect the Democratic Party to address their economic concerns rather than just opposing Trump.
Trump, on the other hand, has obtained a political “target,” and can blame others for Washington's shortcomings, and may throw economic problems and high prices on the Democratic Party, saying that the Democratic Party is now also responsible for the economy.
Democratic majority in the Senate: 8 seats or more
The Democratic Party can claim a clear electoral mandate, and argue that voters rejected Trump's administration during the first half of his second term.
The Democratic Party has taken the strongest stance in fiscal negotiations with the Republican Party and the White House on government funding and debt ceilings because it has more votes to pass relevant laws.
The Democratic Party still lacks sufficient votes to break through lengthy debates, overturn the veto power, or convict Trump in an impeachment trial when House Democrats decide to impeach him.
Impact: Democrats get more chips, but their administration is still limited by Trump's veto power, lengthy rules of debate, and shared political responsibility for the economy.
Scenario 4: The Republican Party continues to control the House and Senate
Given the large number of vulnerable Republicans in the House of Representatives who need to defend their seats, this scenario is unlikely, but it is still possible.
Impact: Trump and the Republican Party will claim new mandates for the last two years of their term. Under the unification of power in Washington, Trump, who is more encouraged, will face very few congressional restrictions and continue to push for judicial nominations and other appointments. The risk of major budgets, government shutdowns, and debt-ceiling confrontations will be reduced.