The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guangfa Securities released a research report stating that it covered Youran Animal Husbandry (09858) for the first time, giving it a “buy” rating, referring to comparable company valuations and taking into account cyclical factors, giving the company a price-earnings ratio of 7 times 2027, calculated based on the RMB exchange rate of 0.86 HKD/CNY against the Hong Kong dollar, corresponding to a reasonable value of HK$5.87 per share. The bank expects the company's net profit to be 1,508 billion yuan, 3.227 billion yuan, and 3.415 billion yuan respectively in 2026-2028, with earnings per share of 0.34 yuan, 0.72 yuan and 0.76 yuan respectively. The bank believes that the company's main raw milk business has obvious comprehensive advantages, product structure optimization drives premium sales, and the upward beef cattle cycle is expected to increase performance flexibility.
The main views of GF Securities are as follows:
The animal husbandry leader with a full domestic industrial chain layout is deeply tied to the controlling shareholder Yili
Formerly known as Hushi Feed Factory, Youran Animal Husbandry began focusing on ranch management in 2007. Currently, the company uses the sales of raw milk and ruminants as its core business, extending the entire industry chain. In 2025, the company achieved revenue of 20.65 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8% over the previous year; it sold 4.15 million tons of raw milk, ranking first in the country in terms of market share. The company is deeply tied to Yili Group, a leading downstream dairy company, to generate revenue of 15.47 billion yuan from selling raw milk to Yili in 2025, accounting for 96.6% of the company's raw milk sales revenue.
The main raw milk business has obvious comprehensive advantages, and product structure optimization promotes premium sales
The company continues to expand high-margin products such as specialty milk. Specialty fresh milk has the characteristics of high added value and high gross profit, so there is a clear premium in the company's raw milk sales. According to the company's annual report and Wind data, the average sales price of the company's raw milk in 2025 was 3.86 yuan/kg, and the average sales price of raw milk in the industry was 3.06 yuan/kg.
In recent years, the company has continued to promote the integration of raw milk business and invest in breeding system research and development. The subsidiary Secco Star is the largest dairy breeding enterprise in China. At the same time, the company is actively promoting smart breeding, improving yield efficiency to drive yield growth and cost decline. By the end of 2025, the company had 619,000 dairy cows, accounting for 55% of adult cows. In 2025, the company's dairy cow yield increased to 12.9 tons/head, and the sales cost per kilogram of milk was 2.54 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%.
The upward cycle of beef cattle increases performance flexibility, and the supporting business of the industrial chain develops collaboratively
Domestic supply contraction combined with import quota restrictions. The bank believes that the company is expected to continue to benefit from fluctuating and rising beef cattle prices. According to the company's 2026 interim report, the company turned a loss into a profit in the first half of 2026. At the same time, the company began to lay out beef cattle business, use low-yield dairy herds for beef cattle hybridization, and sell them until the shelf stage. The company makes full use of the advantages of existing feed production capacity, does a good job of “domestic supply and export sales”, and forms synergetic value with the raw milk industry. Profit fluctuations in supporting businesses in the industrial chain are relatively small, providing the company with stable cash flow and profits.
Profit prediction and investment advice
The bank estimates that the company's net profit for 2026-2028 will be 1,508 billion yuan, 3.227 billion yuan, and 3.415 billion yuan respectively, with earnings per share of 0.34 yuan, 0.72 yuan and 0.76 yuan respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations and taking into account cyclical factors, the company was given a price-earnings ratio of 7 times 2027. The exchange rate of RMB to Hong Kong dollar was 0.86 HKD/CNY, corresponding to a reasonable value of HK$5.87 per share, and a “buy” rating.
Risk Alerts
Risk of price fluctuation of feed ingredients, risk of epidemic disease, risk of beef cattle price fluctuation, policy risk, food safety, etc.