DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) shares have been volatile over the past year, trading in a wide range from $1.41 right up to $5.09.
They are currently changing hands for $1.50, down 66.3% over a 12-month period.
The analysts at Cannacord Genuity believe this represents a good opportunity to buy in, and have a bullish 12-month share price target on the company, which I'll get to shortly.
First let's look at some recent news from DroneShield.
Revenue to come in as expected
Last week, DroneShield released an update, revealing that its committed revenue for FY26 was $261 million, which was at the midpoint of guidance of $250-$270 million.
Managing Director Angus Bean said at the time:
This is an encouraging update as we approach the end of the year. FY2026 Committed Revenue of $261 million is approximately 35% above that in October 2025, and 121% of our full-year revenue in 2025. We also have $29 million in Committed Revenue for FY2027 and a further $17 million for FY2028 and beyond. Committed Revenue gives us valuable visibility into future periods, with growing evidence of DroneShield's leading role in the counter-drone industry. 2026 has been an important year when foundations have been reset, the platform has been built out, and we prepare for continued scale and growth in 2027 and beyond.
The research report from CG says that committed revenue for FY27 and FY28 was currently $29 million and $17 million, respectively.
They added that 15% of committed revenue was non-military, which was an important diversification.
CG said a late September announcement from DroneShield that it had been awarded a Joint Interagency Task Force contract in the US with a ceiling value of US$500 million was also a positive.
They said the DroneShield was one of 10 counter-drone operators of various sizes awarded the contracts, with US$500m ceilings being the largest awarded.
They added:
While not representing order guarantee, this is a strong indication of budgeting process from an existing DRO customer, with DRO having successfully completed delivery of a $25m order for DSX systems deployed on US military Infantry Squad Vehicles in September, an order executed through JIATF-401. In our view, this acts as a very late-stage, 3-year pipeline opportunity with clear visibility on contract orders from the US Department of War that has indicated its counter-drone spending intentions as a strategic priority.
DroneShield shares looking cheap
CG said they remained positive about DroneShield, despite the fact that its growth path was non-linear and difficult to predict.
They said, "we see increasing pipeline visibility and next generation product releases as future potential catalysts for the stock''.
CG has a price target of $2.60 on DroneShield shares compared to $1.50 currently.
DroneShield is valued at $1.44 billion.
The post How high will DroneShield shares go? A broker weighs in appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.
Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.
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