GDP grew 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026. In response, Shen Wan Hongyuan's chief economist, Zhao Wei, said that the domestic economy will achieve an “N-type” recovery, and the fourth quarter is expected to show a pattern where exports remain high and domestic demand recovers marginally. There was a marginal improvement in economic data for September, including external and domestic demand indicators. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the economy is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend. On the export side, the short-term impact of trade disturbances between China and Europe is limited. Supported by the strong AI boom and the recovery cycle of US imports, exports are expected to maintain high growth. On the investment side, financing pressure on housing enterprises may still be dragging down real estate investment, but domestic inventory policies are being implemented at an accelerated pace, compounded by lagging support from factors such as a marked decline in the proportion of special bonds and improvements in early profits since August, and overall investment is expected to continue to recover in the fourth quarter. In terms of consumption, consumer consumption is expected to continue its moderate upward trend, and overall consumption is expected to be basically stable.

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