The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shen Wan Hongyuan released a research report stating that in line with the 2026H1 interim report's business quality, it chose the target of the “New Stage of Technology” proposal. New-stage companies should have these characteristics: chain owners, strong management resilience, and long-term corporate culture and strategy. Regarding the quality of operations, the bank mainly focuses on revenue ratio, net present ratio, and cash flow situation. Recommended attention: 1) semiconductor industry chain companies; 2) software and hardware integration leaders; 3) brokerage informatization related; 4) some software technology leaders; 5) optical module leaders (worthy of attention).
Shen Wan Hongyuan's main views are as follows:
The global AI ROI issue is an important reason for the collective adjustment of technology stocks
1) The MIT “Generative AI Divide” report from July to August 2025, the Bank of England meeting in October 2025, the World Economic Forum in November 2025, and authoritative domestic media in November 2025 all pointed out the risks. 2) Problems or focuses on issues such as sunk costs, revolving financing, commercial profit paths, and capital leverage risks. 3) Recently, Coreweave/OpenAI/Anthropic's business situation has heightened this concern.
The domestic AI industry has a higher lower limit
1) The ROI of AI in China is not the same. Although the ROI of AI also needs to be considered, due to the bank's broad and comprehensive manufacturing base, considering only manufacturing AI (using AI to help the vast manufacturing industry create new opportunities, reduce costs, and speed up turnover), the results are obvious. 2) According to authoritative industry data, the digital transformation coverage rate of industrial enterprises above scale is 92%, the penetration rate of digital production equipment is 63%, the numerical control rate of key processes is 69.5%, and the penetration rate of digital R&D and design tools is 86.3%, which further prove the foundation of industrial AI in the industry.
The same cycle, two narratives to understand the rise and adjustment of technology stock prices
1) In this environment, the bank has formed a “healthy industry - many suppliers - competition exists - short-term profits or instability - valuation multiples fall when the market is cool”. 2) When market sentiment is high, the industry is healthy and there are many suppliers, which often accompanies the rise in technology stocks; when market sentiment is lackluster, short-term profits are unstable or lead to stock price adjustments. 3) Recent changes in US bond interest rates have made this situation more tangible. On the one hand, investors can understand that the recent decline in A+H technology stocks may be related to changes in US bond yields, as evidenced by historical rules. On the other hand, the limit value of US bond yields also means that it will eventually be “extremely counterproductive,” and investors should start looking for opportunities in A+H technology stocks.
Tech companies' valuation appeal has increased dramatically
1) Since July, the PE valuation multiples for leading technology companies have declined rapidly. TMT50's PE-TTM has been in the 25% quantile for 10 years and 22% for 3 years. In just 3 months, the above indicators quickly fell from over 90% (or even 99%) to below 30%. The Hang Seng Technology Index's PE-TTM has been in the 24% quantile over the past 10 years, and the PS-TTM quantile is below 1%. 2) The current TMT50 relative valuation multiples for A-shares are similar to those at the beginning of April, while the relative valuation multiples for Hong Kong stocks are even lower. It shows that even if the fundamentals still need to be observed, the amplification effect of investor sentiment is already leading by a large margin. This ushered in a “new phase of A+H technology opportunities”.
The risk comes from: 1) The risk of valuation fluctuations. 2) Competition risks in the field of science and technology. 3) Risks that are too difficult to track.