Cryptocurrency punters remain skeptical that Iran will sabotage undersea cables to disrupt critical digital infrastructure, despite a renewed threat from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Polymarket Traders Aren’t Buying It
The betting crowd on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket priced in a 4% chance that Iran or any of its proxy groups, including Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis, physically damage undersea cable infrastructure by month-end.
The probability of the attack occurring by year’s end was 12%.
Iran Amplifies Threat
The odds shift as IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebi threatened to target undersea communication cables in the Strait of Hormuz, saying that "all of the world’s internet and commercial data depend on them,” reported Al Jazeera.
Mohebi’s comments came after Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned that a return to intense fighting could endanger critical technology infrastructure, including cables, data centers, and AI facilities.
The threats followed drone attacks in early March that damaged Amazon Web Services infrastructure in the UAE and Bahrain, causing physical damage, power disruptions and cloud service outages.
More than 90% of data capacity between Europe and Asia passes through subsea fiber-optic cables running beneath the Red Sea, according to telecom data analytics firm TeleGeography.
Iran-backed Houthis control key coastal areas and shipping lanes at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern entrance to the Red Sea, giving Tehran another pressure point.
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