The Zhitong Finance App learned that Lyon released a research report saying that mainland property prices are beginning to stabilize. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Shanghai became the first city where second-hand housing prices were corrected year on year in September. The second-hand housing price index rose 0.8% year on year, strengthening the bank's view that the housing market is stabilizing. The bank expects that as second-hand transactions accelerate, inventory pressure eases, and the supply of new homes slows down, more Tier 1 and 2 cities are expected to follow Shanghai's recovery trajectory after the Lunar New Year; mortgage interest subsidies can also provide an additional catalyst for low-tier cities to participate in the recovery.
Lyon pointed out that the transaction area of new homes improved after the National Day Golden Week. The year-on-year changes in the transaction area of Monday, second, and third-tier cities were 38.7%, 73.9%, and 5.3%, respectively. Compared with September, they increased by 16.7%, decreased by 11.9%, and decreased by 8.7%, respectively. According to CRIC data, sales of the top 100 real estate companies fell 7% year on year in September. According to CREIS data, second-hand housing prices in Baicheng fell 0.60% month-on-month in September, with Shanghai rising 0.11% month-on-month; rents in 50 cities fell slightly by 0.17% month-on-month, of which Shanghai rose 0.52% month-on-month.
The bank believes that the new home sales reform may have an impact on transaction volume in the short term, but the medium-term pricing prospects are stronger. The lengthening of the cash return cycle will inhibit land acquisitions and new project launches. It is expected that in 2027, turnover will drop 20% and sales amount will shrink by 16%. However, reduced supply, reduced delivery risk, and longer mortgage terms should support a 5% increase in property prices in 2027.