The Zhitong Finance App learned that the Lithium Industry Branch announced the operation of the lithium industry in September 2026. In September 2026, the price of lithium carbonate accelerated, spodumene imports increased, and Zimbabwean lithium ore arrived in Hong Kong one after another. At the same time, downstream battery production schedules have exceeded expectations, and demand for energy storage and power batteries is simultaneously driving up. However, the market is more concerned about the loose long-term supply situation, and prices are falling under pressure.
I. Market conditions
1. Market price
In September 2026, domestic lithium carbonate prices fell. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell 18.8% from 157,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 128,500 yuan/ton at the end of the month; the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate fell 18.4% from 154,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 125,500 yuan/ton at the end of the month; the closing price of the main contract fell 25.0% from 15,7860 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 118,420 yuan/ton at the end of the month.
Figure 1 Current price of lithium carbonate (yuan/ton)
The decline in lithium carbonate prices accelerated in September. Zimbabwe's lithium mines have arrived in Hong Kong one after another, spodumene imports have remained high, and the direction of supply marginal repair is clear. At the same time, downstream battery production schedules have exceeded expectations, and demand for energy storage and power batteries is simultaneously driving up. The market is more concerned about the increase in long-term supply and the continuation of downstream demand, leading to downward pressure on prices.
In September, domestic lithium hydroxide prices fell. The price of lithium hydroxide fell 19.7% from 147,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 118,500 yuan/ton at the end of the month.
Figure 2 Price of lithium hydroxide (yuan/ton)
2. Futures and current price differences
Judging from the base difference, the current price spread of lithium carbonate fluctuated in September 2026, and the current price difference was about 0.1-13,000 yuan/ton. The monthly fluctuation rate of futures prices was 12.08%. The monthly fluctuation rate last month was 11.06%, and the current price spread fluctuation increased. It is expected that the current base difference will remain volatile for some time to come.
Figure 3 Current price difference of lithium carbonate (yuan/ton)
3. Transaction activity
In terms of market transactions, in September, the average daily turnover of lithium carbonate futures was 281,000 lots, down 2,275 lots from the previous month; the average daily holding volume was 705,000 lots, up 26,000 lots from the previous month, and market trading activity remained flat.
Figure 4 Average monthly trading volume and position volume of lithium carbonate futures (lots)
4. Warehouse receipt inventory
By the end of September, Guangji Institute's lithium carbonate warehouse inventory was 31990 tons, down 13,634 tons from the previous month.
Figure 5 Number of lithium carbonate futures warehouse receipts (lots)
5. Cathode material price
The price of lithium iron phosphate fell in September. The National Bureau of Statistics announced the market prices of important means of production in the distribution sector in September. Prices of lithium iron phosphate fell by 1.9%, 7.0%, and 1.3% in the early, middle, and late stages, respectively.
Figure 6 Price of lithium iron phosphate (yuan)
6. Macroeconomics
In terms of macroeconomic sentiment, the manufacturing boom has returned to the expansion range. The manufacturing PMI for September was 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and rebounded for two consecutive months. On the production side, the PMI production index was 51.7%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month; on the demand side, the PMI new orders index was 50.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the PMI new export orders index was 50. 0%, and the overseas demand boom remained stable. In terms of price, the price of industrial raw materials is 60.8%, and the ex-factory price index is 54.0%. The production index rose while the order index fell slightly, and the pattern where supply was stronger than demand continued. The cost side was mainly due to rising crude oil and non-ferrous metal prices, so we are concerned about whether the new orders index can pick up again in the fourth quarter.
Figure 7 China's manufacturing PMI index
Macro inflation data has been rising steadily, CPI is generally stable, and PPI growth has reached a new high in nearly four years. In September, CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 0.9% year-on-year. The food item declined 1.7% year over year, with the exception of food and energy, the core CPI rose 1.0% year over year. PPI rose 1.2% month-on-month and 5.0% year-on-year in September, hitting a record high since July 2022, exceeding market expectations. Upstream PPI continued to be strong, and the means of production rose 6.5% year over year. Looking at the PPI structure, prices in new economic industries such as computer communications have risen. Prices for petroleum extraction, refined petroleum products manufacturing, and organic chemical raw material manufacturing have risen by 14.5%, 7.4%, and 5.4% respectively, while the non-ferrous metal ore mining and processing industry and the smelting and rolling processing industry have risen 1.6% and 1.5% respectively. Prices in industries with weak domestic demand, such as ferrous metal smelting, are still low or in a negative range, and the pattern of industry differentiation continues.
Figure 8. YoY ratio of China's CPI and PPI for the same month
Supply of lithium products
On the supply side, lithium salt production increased month-on-month in September. According to statistics from the Lithium Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in September, the country's lithium carbonate production was about 102,000 tons, up 6.5% from the previous month; the country's lithium hydroxide production was about 29,000 tons, down 12.5% from the previous month. The country's lithium salt production is equivalent to about 128,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), up 2.1% from the previous month.
The regional concentration of lithium salt production is high. In September, China's lithium carbonate production was mainly concentrated in Jiangxi, Sichuan and Qinghai, accounting for 28%, 21%, and 19% respectively; lithium hydroxide production was mainly concentrated in Sichuan and Jiangxi, accounting for 54% and 28% respectively.
Figure 9 Share of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide production in various provinces in September