BAWAG Group stock has slipped over the past month and quarter, even though today’s close at €160.8 comes just after another solid set of Q3 2026 numbers. The market’s short-term chill sits awkwardly against earnings per share of €3.18 and net income of €247.5m, which keep profit generation firmly in focus.
The real story now pivots to durability. Loan quality remains a key watchpoint, with non performing exposures and risk costs central to how sustainable this profit engine looks over the next several years rather than just this quarter.
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Q3 2026 Earnings Summary
- Revenue (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): €526.2m vs. €502.2m (steady year on year increase)
- Net Income (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): €247.5m vs. €218.5m (higher profit level)
- Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): €3.18 vs. €2.77 (higher earnings per share)
- Non Performing Loans, NPL ratio proxy (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): €830m vs. €664m (larger stock of problem loans)
Tired of skimming through dense earnings tables and raw figures? See the full financial picture of BAWAG Group, including a clear visual view of its valuation, in the company report for BAWAG Group.
BAWAG’s “Compounding Machine” Claim Meets The Numbers
Supporters argue BAWAG Group can compound earnings through tight costs, a richer lending mix and disciplined capital use. The hinge point is whether that efficiency survives higher risk costs and deal making.
"The main thing that has to go right is that BAWAG maintains its low cost-income ratio while integrating further acquisitions, managing higher risk costs from unsecured lending and preserving its conservative capital profile."
On this scorecard, Q3 hits several milestones. Cost/income stayed below 30%. Risk costs ran at 56 bps with group NPLs around 1%. CET1 of 17.1% and over €1b excess capital support both the PTSB bid and the conservative capital label.
One Narrative has put a figure on that disagreement. → See the Narrative with its higher Fair Value, assumptions and all.
BAWAG Risk Costs: Bear Worries Start To Show
Bearish investors argue that BAWAG Group’s pivot to unsecured lending could harden into structurally higher risk costs that eat into today’s strong profitability.
"Although BAWAG Group is currently reporting a higher net interest margin supported by unsecured consumer and credit card lending, the raised 2026 risk cost guidance to around 50 bps driven by this asset mix points to a future where rising provisions could erode the margin benefit and weigh on earnings if expected credit losses keep building faster than revenue."
Q3 risk costs of 56 bps and non performing loans rising to €830m validate the direction of that concern. Earnings, RoTCE and a sub 30% cost/income ratio still absorb it, but the key bearish milestone, higher through cycle risk costs, is clearly appearing in the numbers.
Hunt For Mispriced Earnings Power
BAWAG Group illustrates how a strong profit engine can still leave investors debating risk costs and durability. The real opportunity is finding stocks that could be undervalued before the market corrects them.
- Company 1 - 34% below our estimate - benefits as scarce offshore support vessels and industry consolidation increase pricing power on long term marine service contracts.
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Those are three of them. See the full list of 193 companies trading below our fair value estimates →
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