The Zhitong Finance App learned that analysts at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) are still optimistic about the long-term prospects of gold, even though the bank has drastically lowered its gold price forecast for this year. In its latest precious metals outlook report, the bank lowered its gold price forecast for the fourth quarter of this year from 6,500 US dollars per ounce at the beginning of the year to 4,500 US dollars; at the same time, the average price of gold is expected to be 5,200 US dollars per ounce in 2027, lower than the previous forecast of 6,500 US dollars; in 2028, the average price is 5,500 US dollars per ounce, which is also lower than the previous forecast of 6,000 US dollars.
The CIBC analyst team led by Anita Soni and Cosmos Chiu said that although the monetary policy environment is becoming more and more challenging for gold, the fundamental drivers that underpinned the historic rise in gold prices last year remain stable.
Inflation was intensified by the US-Iran war and high energy prices, which forced the Federal Reserve to adopt a more austerity monetary policy stance. However, the CIBC team anticipates that geopolitical uncertainty, government debt concerns, and diversification of central bank reserves will continue to support gold prices in the longer term.
In addition to monetary policy, CIBC also anticipates that investment demand and central bank purchases will remain the two most important structural pillars supporting gold. According to the report, global gold ETFs attracted a record investment of 30.7 billion US dollars in the third quarter, corresponding to the demand for 211 tons of physical gold.
In terms of market performance, gold futures fell slightly for the second consecutive trading day on Tuesday, and high oil prices continued to drive up inflation risks and interest rate expectations.
Fawad Razaqzada of Foex.com said in the report that the downward trend in gold may have lost momentum, “but there is no convincing evidence that the price of gold has bottomed out.” He wrote that actual economic data and survey indicators have once again raised concerns about inflation. Coupled with rising oil prices, the market is worried that major central banks will have to further tighten their policies in the next few months. He also added that the central bank's purchase of gold can cushion downside risks, but it may not be enough to stop the price of gold from falling below $4,000 per ounce, at least temporarily.
In terms of specific prices, recent Comex gold futures for October delivery fell 0.4% to 4122.40 US dollars per ounce; recent Comex silver futures for October delivery rose 1.3% to 57.706 US dollars per ounce.