Morgan Stanley said that the refined oil market is likely to continue to be tight until mid-2027, because even if disruptions caused by the war ease, an “abnormal sharp increase” in refinery maintenance will limit global supply. Analysts such as Martijn Rats and Charlotte Firkins said in a report released on Tuesday that from now until the end of the second quarter of next year, production stoppages due to planned maintenance of global refineries will increase by 3.4 million b/d, which is equivalent to 2.5 times the normal level, and also exceeds the current decline in processing volume at refineries in the Middle East and Russia.

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