The Zhitong Finance App learned that BOC International released a research report saying that the current demand and production schedule in the battery industry remains high. Looking ahead to 2027, global energy installed growth, data center electricity demand, and grid-side energy storage construction are expected to continue to support demand for energy storage batteries; in terms of power batteries, the increase in electrification penetration in Europe and emerging markets is expected to contribute to the increase, but the growth rate of demand in mainland China may slow down, and there is still uncertainty in the North American market. On the profit side, since September, lithium-ion batteries have officially been subject to 2% consumption tax, compounded by reduced export tax rebates and industry price competition. The profits of battery companies are still facing downward pressure. On the other hand, the battery sector has experienced a sharp correction since mid-year. The bank believes that recent stock price adjustments not only reflect market concerns about increased taxes and declining unit profits, but also reflect to a certain extent investors' cautious expectations of a slowdown in power battery demand growth in 2027 and the supply and demand pattern of the industry. The current risk-benefit ratio has improved.
The main views of BOC International are as follows:
Mainland China: Energy storage sales maintained a high year-on-year growth rate in September, and power battery loading continued to pick up month-on-month
According to data from the China Automobile Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in September, China's total output of power and energy storage batteries was 237.8 GWh, +57.3%/+0.3% month-on-month; total sales volume was 222.7 GWh, +52.0%/-0.2% month-on-month. Among them, power battery sales were 149.2 GWh, or +35.0%/+1.7% month-on-month; energy storage battery sales were 73.5 GWh, +104.4% YoY and -3.7% month-on-month, accounting for 33.0% of total sales. The cumulative sales volume of power/energy storage batteries in January-September reached 1,086.4/595.4 GWh respectively, up 38.2%/111.8% year-on-year. In terms of exports, the total export of power and energy storage batteries in September was 44.0 GWh, +64.5%/+3.7% month-on-month, of which energy storage batteries were exported 15.6 GWh, or +71.4% year-on-year. Mainland China's power battery load capacity was 87.2 GWh, +14.7%/+10.4% month-on-month, while lithium iron phosphate batteries were loaded at 74.5 GWh, accounting for 85.5%. Overall, production and sales remained flat month-on-month in September, and maintained relatively rapid year-on-year growth. Energy storage is still an important driving force for industry growth.
Overseas: The non-mainland Chinese market continues to grow faster than the global market, and the share of Chinese battery companies has further increased
According to SNereSearch data, the global electric vehicle battery load from January to August 2026 was 844.2 GWh, up 19.7% year on year; of these, 116.8 GWh per month in August was up 14.3% year on year, and the growth rate slowed. In January-August, the Ningde Era loaded 333.0 GWH, up 25.2% year on year, and the global share rose to 39.4%; BYD loaded 127.9 GWh, up 6.2% year on year, with a share of 15.1%; China Airlines and Everweft Lithium Energy increased 32.6%/53.9% year on year respectively. In January-August, the loading volume of vehicles in the non-mainland China market was 360.5 GWh, up 23.7% year on year, faster than the global market; Ningde Shidai/BYD increased 43.3%/66.5% year on year respectively, and the total share increased 7.5 percentage points year on year to 44.7% year on year. China Innovation Airline/Everweft Lithium Energy increased 77.6%/185.6% year on year respectively, and the overseas penetration rate of Chinese battery companies continued to increase. However, the month-on-month year-on-year growth rate of the non-mainland China market slowed to 9.0% in August, further showing the impact of weak demand in North America. The bank believes that overall overseas demand is still resilient, but regional differentiation has intensified, and Europe and emerging markets are still an important source of growth for Chinese battery companies to expand overseas.
Battery production continued to increase in October, and demand for energy storage projects remained high
According to Xinyi News data, the sample company's battery pre-production schedule in October was 212.5 GWh, an increase of 3.8% month-on-month. The production boom in the industrial chain in the fourth quarter was still supported. On the energy storage project side, according to CNESA statistics, the energy storage EPC (including PC) bid capacity was 53.4 GWh in September, exceeding 40 GWh for 6 consecutive months; the winning bid capacity was 50.7 GWh, an increase of 18.9% over the previous month, reaching a record high in a single month during the year. Excluding collection and framing projects, the standard capacity of the energy storage system was about 15.1 GWh, an increase of 43.7% over the previous month, indicating that demand for conventional projects is still active. The bank believes that while the growth rate of power battery demand is gradually stabilizing, energy storage is still an important driving force for industry demand growth.
Industrial policies promote technological upgrading, and the importance of overseas localization is further highlighted
In September, seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the New Battery Industry”, which proposes to promote the initial large-scale application of all-solid-state batteries by 2030, and further expand energy storage application scenarios such as data centers, power supply side and power grid side. At the same time, it emphasizes coordination of supply and demand and standardizes industry price competition to promote the transformation of the industry to technological innovation and high-quality development. Overseas, recent Sino-European automobile trade negotiations have progressed in stages, but European trade policies and localized production requirements are still uncertain, and battery companies with European production capacity and localized supply chains are expected to form a comparative advantage in customer support and market expansion. In September, the first two battery cell production lines at the Debrecen plant in Hungary during the Ningde era began trial production, laying the foundation for subsequent mass production and localized supply in Europe. The bank believes that as the global trade environment and supply chain requirements continue to change, overseas production capacity layout, localization support and compliance capabilities will become important factors for Chinese battery companies to enhance their global competitiveness.