-+ 0.00%
-+ 0.00%
-+ 0.00%
Prediction: SpaceX Is About to Fleece Retail Investors, With Up to $180 Billion in Insider Sales Set to Hit the Tape
Share
Listen to the news

Key Points

  • Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence and space infrastructure goliath rewrote the stock market’s record books on June 12.

  • SpaceX’s staggered and accelerated share-unlock period for select insiders is about to pick up in a big way.

  • A historically low post-IPO float has further complicated things for retail investors.

Four months ago, on June 12, Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX), better known as SpaceX, rewrote the stock market's record books. SpaceX raised $85.7 billion from its initial public offering (IPO), including the underwriters' overallotment, and was valued at $1.77 trillion on its debut day -- both all-time highs.

Unfortunately, Musk's artificial intelligence and space infrastructure titan is also making dubious history. Alongside its jaw-dropping sales growth and its estimated $28.5 trillion addressable market, SpaceX looks to be on the verge of fleecing its retail investors, yet again.

Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »

A rocket is accelerating from a launchpad, leaving behind a widening exhaust plume.

Image source: SpaceX.

Two massive share-unlock events are on the docket over the next three trading days

When a private company goes public, it typically sets ground rules for its insiders, consisting of high-ranking executives, board members, and early investors. This includes a share lockup period that usually spans 180 calendar days post IPO. Lockup periods ensure that insiders aren't taking advantage of retail investor euphoria after a company goes public.

Throughout much of the IPO process, Musk's company ignored convention -- and this includes the insider lockup period.

In SpaceX's mile-long prospectus, the company outlined a staggered and accelerated share-unlock schedule for early-release-eligible insiders. While Elon Musk can't sell any of his shares until 366 calendar days post-debut, select insiders would be free to sell some of their shares much sooner than the traditional 180-calendar-day mark.

SpaceX's share-unlock events fall into two categories: earnings- and time-based events.

On Aug. 6, two trading days after Space Exploration Technologies' first quarterly report as a public company, approximately 911.5 million early-release-eligible insider shares became available for sale. This same number of shares is set to unlock tomorrow, Oct. 22, following SpaceX's latest quarterly report on Oct. 20.

Additionally, around 319 million early-release-eligible insider shares can be sold on several time-based events, including calendar days 70, 90, 105, 120, 135, and 180 after the company's IPO. Since calendar day 135 lands on a weekend, another 319 million shares will be unlocked for sale on Oct. 26.

Based on SpaceX's closing price of $146.03 per share on Oct. 16, retail investors may face up to $180 billion in selling pressure from insiders over the next three trading days.

A businessperson is pressing the sell button on an oversized digital screen.

Image source: Getty Images.

Space Exploration Technologies' float complicates things

What makes these ongoing share-unlock events so problematic for retail investors is that SpaceX started its tenure as a public company with a historically low float (tradable shares).

When a company goes public, it typically sells 10% to 25% of its outstanding shares. In SpaceX's case, the roughly 555.6 million shares sold at its IPO account for less than 5% of the company's outstanding shares.

Musk's company going public with a historically low float complicated things early on. Being granted fast-track entry to the Nasdaq-100, Russell 1000, and Russell 3000 meant passive funds were gobbling up a relatively narrow pool of tradable SpaceX shares during its first weeks as a public company. This dynamic helped to buoy SpaceX's share price.

But as each new share-unlock event occurs, the company's float dramatically increases, threatening to drag down its share price. While not every early-release-eligible insider is selling their shares, these events have allowed early investors to cash out for the very first time.

In other words, the greatest fleecing of retail investors in Wall Street's storied history marches on in a big way over the next three trading sessions.

Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the author only. It does not represent the opinion of Webull, nor should it be viewed as an indication that Webull either agrees with or confirms the truthfulness or accuracy of the information. It should not be considered as investment advice from Webull or anyone else, nor should it be used as the basis of any investment decision.
What's Trending