07:41 AM EDT, 10/21/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg lowered its full-year 2027 sales forecast for Roche's (RO.SW) investigational breast cancer drug giredestrant ahead of the Swiss drugmaker's anticipated "in-line" third-quarter sales report on Thursday. "Roche shares trade on the highest P/E valuation of European larger pharma at 18x 2027. This leaves little room for error on the giredestrant launch, in our view. Management appears to be comfortable with consensus sales of CHF600m in 2027 yet highlighted the lack of Medicare coverage and free access requirements in year one. We provide a flex on monthly price and market share to calculate sales. Consequently, we reduce our sales forecast to CHF550m (from CHF800m) in 2027. This requires an average of 7% of intermediate- to high-risk patients to be treated in the US versus c26% on CDK4/6 after five years," analysts said Wednesday. For the third quarter, the research firm projects group sales of 15.8 billion francs, up 5% at constant exchange rates and aligned with market expectations. Factoring in a 1% currency tailwind, analysts expect investor attention to pivot to the giredestrant rollout. Berenberg believes near-term catalysts include US Food and Drug Administration rulings on giredestrant for adjuvant breast cancer on Nov. 30, 2026, and second-line and beyond breast cancer on Dec. 18, 2026. Further ahead, phase 3 trial readouts are slated for afimkibart in colitis in the first half of 2027, followed by zemozimig in haemophilia and Columvi in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in the latter half. Against this backdrop, the research firm maintained its hold rating and price target of 350 francs on the stock.

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