Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
TTM Technologies reports before the market opens, meaning Day 0 represents the first reaction session and Day +1 captures follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | -$1.54 (-1.16%) | $7.63 (5.74%) | +$5.10 (+3.89%) | $25.94 (19.76%) |
| 2026-04-29 | -$0.09 (-0.07%) | $10.92 (7.94%) | +$20.72 (+15.07%) | $31.59 (22.97%) |
| 2026-02-04 | -$11.35 (-10.55%) | $15.08 (14.02%) | -$3.64 (-3.78%) | $15.14 (15.73%) |
| 2025-10-29 | +$4.32 (+7.30%) | $4.50 (7.60%) | -$1.55 (-2.44%) | $5.41 (8.52%) |
| 2025-07-30 | +$0.21 (+0.43%) | $2.21 (4.55%) | -$1.48 (-3.04%) | $4.84 (9.93%) |
| 2025-04-30 | -$0.40 (-1.96%) | $0.63 (3.11%) | +$3.33 (+16.63%) | $1.85 (9.22%) |
| 2025-02-05 | +$0.48 (+1.98%) | $1.01 (4.14%) | +$1.94 (+7.83%) | $3.80 (15.33%) |
| 2024-10-30 | +$0.01 (+0.05%) | $0.67 (3.40%) | +$2.72 (+13.79%) | $2.61 (13.24%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 2.94% | 6.31% | 8.31% | 14.34% |
TTM's post-earnings price behavior shows significant volatility, with the stock averaging an 8.31% absolute move on Day +1 following earnings releases. The most dramatic reaction came after the April 2026 report, when shares surged 15.07% on Day 0 and extended gains with a Day +1 range of 22.97%. The February 2026 report triggered the largest initial decline, with a -10.55% Day 0 move, though the stock stabilized somewhat on Day +1.
Recent quarters show a pattern of strong follow-through after initial reactions. The most recent August 2026 report saw a modest Day 0 decline of 1.16%, but Day +1 delivered a 3.89% gain with a 19.76% intraday range. The average Day 0 range of 6.31% expands to 14.34% by Day +1, indicating that initial market reactions often intensify as investors digest the results and management commentary. Given the current focus on capital allocation and 2027 growth visibility, investors should expect elevated volatility extending beyond the initial session.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 11/20/26 (DTE 30) |
| Expected Move | $18.53 (18.14%) |
| Expected Range | $83.62 to $120.68 |
| Implied Volatility | 91.18% |
The options market is pricing an 18.14% expected move for the November expiration, significantly higher than the stock's average historical Day +1 move of 8.31%. This elevated implied volatility reflects heightened uncertainty around management's ability to address investor concerns about capital intensity and free cash flow conversion, suggesting options traders are positioning for a larger-than-typical reaction to this earnings release.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts maintain a bullish stance on TTM Technologies with a consensus rating of 4.50 (between Buy and Strong Buy) and an average price target of $200.83. The current breakdown shows 4 Strong Buy ratings, 1 Moderate Buy, and 1 Hold, with no sell ratings among the six analysts covering the stock. The average price target implies 96.6% upside from the current price of $102.15, with estimates ranging from a low of $136.00 to a high of $250.00.
However, sentiment has deteriorated over the past month, with the average recommendation declining from 4.83 to 4.50. One analyst was downgraded from Strong Buy to Hold, reflecting growing concerns about the company's capital spending trajectory and near-term free cash flow profile. Despite this shift, the analyst community remains overwhelmingly positive on the stock's long-term prospects, with the consensus view that strong AI demand and expanding margins will drive substantial earnings growth through 2028.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion shows an 88% Sell signal, unchanged from last week but representing a dramatic deterioration from the 24% Sell signal one month ago. This sharp shift reflects the stock's 47% decline from its 52-week high of $223.83, as concerns about capital intensity have overwhelmed the AI growth narrative.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (100% Sell): Strong sell signal indicates near-term momentum is decisively negative
- Medium-term (100% Sell): Bearish reading confirms weakness across the intermediate timeframe
- Long-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal suggests the longer-term trend has shifted from bullish to neutral
Trend Characteristics: Average strength and average direction indicate the stock is in a sustained downtrend without extreme oversold conditions, suggesting further downside remains possible if earnings disappoint.
The stock is trading at $102.15, below all major moving averages except the 5-day at $98.40. The price sits 14.8% below the 50-day moving average of $119.82 and 20.2% below the 200-day moving average of $127.99, confirming the technical damage from the recent selloff.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $98.40 | 50-Day MA | $119.82 |
| 10-Day MA | $106.03 | 100-Day MA | $139.77 |
| 20-Day MA | $116.93 | 200-Day MA | $127.99 |
Key resistance now sits at the 20-day moving average of $116.93, while support appears limited until the 52-week low of $54.43. The stock's position below all intermediate and long-term moving averages creates a challenging technical setup heading into earnings, with the burden on management to deliver not just strong results but also a credible plan for capital efficiency and free cash flow generation. Any disappointment on 2027 growth visibility or leverage targets could trigger further technical breakdown, while a strong report addressing investor concerns could spark a sharp reversal given the oversold conditions and substantial analyst price target upside.