Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Newmont typically reports after market close, meaning Day 0 captures pre-announcement anticipation while Day +1 reflects the market's first full session to digest results.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | -$1.03 (-1.08%) | $1.95 (2.04%) | -$1.53 (-1.62%) | $2.84 (3.00%) |
| 2026-04-23 | -$0.79 (-0.71%) | $3.31 (2.96%) | +$9.64 (+8.68%) | $9.17 (8.26%) |
| 2026-02-19 | +$0.71 (+0.57%) | $4.18 (3.35%) | -$3.27 (-2.61%) | $6.97 (5.55%) |
| 2025-10-23 | +$1.90 (+2.18%) | $2.92 (3.36%) | -$5.54 (-6.23%) | $4.71 (5.30%) |
| 2025-07-24 | +$0.09 (+0.15%) | $1.81 (2.96%) | +$4.24 (+6.89%) | $3.21 (5.22%) |
| 2025-04-23 | -$1.39 (-2.55%) | $1.86 (3.41%) | +$2.55 (+4.80%) | $1.70 (3.20%) |
| 2025-02-20 | +$0.68 (+1.43%) | $1.02 (2.16%) | -$2.76 (-5.74%) | $3.08 (6.40%) |
| 2024-10-23 | -$0.94 (-1.60%) | $1.10 (1.88%) | -$8.49 (-14.70%) | $7.47 (12.94%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 1.28% | 2.76% | 6.41% | 6.23% |
Newmont's post-earnings price behavior shows significant volatility, with an average absolute Day +1 move of 6.41% and an average Day +1 range of 6.23%. The most recent four reports demonstrate this pattern clearly: July 2026 saw a -1.62% Day +1 move, April 2026 surged +8.68%, February 2026 declined -2.61%, and October 2025 dropped -6.23%.
The Day 0 moves are relatively muted (average 1.28%), consistent with after-hours reporting where initial reactions are limited. However, the Day +1 sessions show substantial swings, with the April 2026 report producing the strongest positive reaction at +8.68% despite a modest Day 0 decline of -0.71%.
Historically, investors should expect meaningful post-earnings volatility regardless of whether the company beats estimates. Even the July 2026 report, which delivered a beat, saw the stock decline -1.62% the following day. The 6.41% average absolute move suggests the market frequently reprices NEM significantly based on guidance, production metrics, and forward-looking commentary beyond the headline EPS figure.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 10/23/26 (DTE 2) |
| Expected Move | $4.73 (4.04%) |
| Expected Range | $112.45 to $121.91 |
| Implied Volatility | 81.80% |
The options market is pricing a 4.04% expected move for this earnings event, which sits below the 6.41% average historical Day +1 move. This suggests options traders may be underestimating potential volatility, creating possible opportunity for those expecting a larger-than-usual reaction to guidance on capital spending and free cash flow outlook.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts maintain strongly bullish sentiment on Newmont heading into earnings, with an average rating of 4.67 out of 5.00 (solidly in Buy territory). The consensus breaks down to 19 Strong Buys, 2 Moderate Buys, and 3 Holds, with zero sell ratings across the 24 analysts covering the stock.
The average price target stands at $137.00, implying 16.9% upside from the current price of $117.18. The range of targets spans from $110.00 to $165.00, with the high-end estimate suggesting potential for 40.8% appreciation if the bull case materializes.
Analyst sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, with rating counts and the average recommendation holding steady at 4.67. This stability reflects confidence in Newmont's fundamental position as a premier gold producer, though the lack of upgrades suggests analysts are waiting for this earnings report to validate their bullish thesis before becoming more aggressive.
The consensus price target of $137.00 represents a meaningful premium to current levels, indicating analysts believe the market is undervaluing Newmont's earnings power and leverage to gold prices. Recent target increases, including Citigroup's move to $140, reinforce the view that the risk-reward remains favorable despite the stock's year-to-date gains.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion currently shows a Buy signal at 40%, representing a significant weakening from 88% Buy one month ago and 8% Buy one week ago. This deterioration in technical momentum heading into earnings suggests near-term consolidation after the stock's substantial rally earlier in the year.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal indicates near-term momentum has cooled but remains constructive
- Medium-term (50% Buy): Neutral-to-positive reading suggests the intermediate trend is holding support
- Long-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal reflects the longer-term uptrend remains intact despite recent softness
Trend Characteristics: The technical environment is characterized by Weak strength in the Weakest direction, indicating diminished momentum and vulnerability heading into the earnings event.
The stock is trading at $117.18, positioned below the 5-day moving average ($117.28) and below the 50-day moving average ($121.85), but above the 10-day ($116.41), 20-day ($116.56), 100-day ($110.22), and 200-day ($112.43) moving averages. This mixed picture shows short-term weakness within a longer-term uptrend.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $117.28 | 50-Day MA | $121.85 |
| 10-Day MA | $116.41 | 100-Day MA | $110.22 |
| 20-Day MA | $116.56 | 200-Day MA | $112.43 |
The pullback from the 50-day moving average at $121.85 to current levels represents a 3.8% decline from that recent peak, creating a technical setup where the stock has room to rally on positive results but also faces limited downside support until the 20-day average at $116.56. The weakening technical momentum and positioning below key short-term averages suggest a cautious setup heading into earnings, where strong results and guidance will be needed to reignite the uptrend. Conversely, any disappointment could accelerate the pullback toward the $112-$110 support zone defined by the 200-day and 100-day moving averages.