According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin market showed strong cost support properties at the $80,000 mark, and buying quickly returned after a short period of consumption. This phenomenon highly coincided with the holding costs of US spot ETFs and the US Treasury, and the key time point was locked after the October 15 price test. The current market structure shows that although prices fluctuate repeatedly around this level, the lower support is solid, while the upper supply pressure and clearing clusters are concentrated in a higher range, forming a clear long and short game pattern.
This cost anchoring effect not only reflects the holding mentality of large institutions, but also suggests that the short-term price fluctuation range may still revolve around this core cost area, providing a clear observation benchmark for market participants. It is worth noting that despite the resurgence of buying, the upper resistance level is also clear. Any attempt to break through requires facing the dual challenges of order book sales and leveraged liquidation. The market is in a delicate balance, waiting for a new catalyst to break the impasse.
Judging from the specific distribution of holding costs, the average cost level of US spot ETFs is regarded as the closest on-chain support level. Since October 8, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated around this level and has dropped many times. The hourly closing price hit $80,100 on October 15, then quickly recovered above the support line, a process that verified the effectiveness of this level. Looking back at the spring season, this support line limited price growth. It wasn't until September 3 that the one-hour closing price was above this line for the first time, and after entering October, its supporting effect was once again highlighted.
Meanwhile, the average cost of Bitcoin held by the US Treasury is estimated at $80,200, which is slightly less than the cost of an ETF. Since September 18, the daily closing price of Bitcoin has been above this level. However, as prices rose, the Ministry of Finance's purchasing power did not increase at the same time, and monthly purchases were less than one-tenth of the peak in November 2024. Since the cost of these two major holders is between $80,000 and $81,500, the decline on October 15 simultaneously tested their position mentality. If the daily closing price falls below $80,000, these two types of holders will face an average loss situation, so this range forms a solid bottom line of defense in the market.
Amidst the dynamic changes in the order book, data from the Binance spot market revealed the regenerative power of buying. The largest buying area indicated in last week's report is exactly at $80,000, which is slightly below the ETF cost. The price drop on October 15 penetrated this area, causing a large number of purchases to be consumed, but by October 20, new purchases surged again, indicating that buyers are still willing to accept chips at this price, although not on the scale of the peak. In contrast, the upward selling pressure is more concentrated, and the main selling area is between $86,500 and $87,500, forming the first important resistance level in the order book.
This means that despite strong lower support, the price increase will face significant selling pressure from above $86,500, and the market will need to absorb these sell orders before it can move further upward. This asymmetrical structure above and below makes $80,000 a short-term safe haven, while $87,500 is a key threshold for breaking through, and traders' attention is highly focused on the game results in this range.
Changes in the liquidation heatmap further confirm the above pattern of supply and demand. The price drop on October 15 cleared the highlighted settlement area close to $80,000. Currently, the two largest clearing clusters have moved above the price, near $85,000 and $87,000, respectively. Below the price, there is still a highlighted line near $89,600, which is slightly below the price low on October 15, indicating the risk of closing certain leveraged positions. Bitcoin's price increase towards $87,000 is likely to accelerate as short positions are forced to close, but then it will hit directly into the selling area in the order book.
This overlap between clearing clusters and sales means that the price will face sharp fluctuations and potential pullback pressure as it approaches $87,000. Traders need to be wary. Once the price hits these liquidation-intensive areas, the market may experience a rapid price reversal, because the liquidation of leveraged funds often has self-reinforcing characteristics, thereby increasing short-term instability in the market.
The cost structure and profit settlement behavior of holders in different cycles also showed significant differentiation. The cost level of Bitcoin bought 6 to 12 months ago is now $86,700, slightly lower than the $88,000 reported last week; while Bitcoin bought 1 to 2 years ago costs around $100,000.
Notably, the cost level of the former is already within the selling and clearing cluster area around $87,000, but the sell-off strength of these holders has weakened. Investors who bought 1 to 2 years ago peaked in early October after the high price in September. Currently, the daily sell-off volume is less than one-third of that time.
If the daily closing price is higher than $86,700, investors who bought 6 to 12 months ago will be able to make an average profit while also breaking through the upper supply pressure zone. This slowdown in profit settlement speed indicates that long-term holders' acceptance of the current price is increasing, and selling pressure is gradually being absorbed, creating conditions for further price increases, but only if it is necessary to effectively break through the key psychological and technical level of $86,700.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the divergence between ETF capital flow and transaction volume is worth paying attention to. After a week of net outflows, US spot ETFs attracted around $653 million in capital inflows on October 19, the largest single-day inflow since September 22, which turned the week's capital flow positive.
However, same-day trading volume did not rise, or even less than the level of an ordinary trading day in the past year. The 30-day average trading volume was only a quarter of the level a year ago. This disconnect between capital inflows and trading activity suggests that demand may be limited to one-day impulses or institutional position adjustments rather than continuous market enthusiasm. The reality of demand can only be confirmed when capital inflows are accompanied by a recovery in trading volume.
Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that profit settlement rate has dropped to about half of the peak in September, and losses have remained stable. The biggest loss occurred when prices fell in the early morning of October 15. This slowdown in profit settlement, combined with ETF capital inflows, indicates that the market is undergoing a process of deleveraging and re-accumulation, but the slump in trading also reminds investors that the current upward foundation is not strong, and they need to be wary of the potential risk of insufficient energy.
The potential impact of the MSCI (MSCI.US) index adjustment rules on Strategy (MSTR.US) companies has become another major focus of the market. After the US stock market closed on October 15, MSCI issued new rules for non-operating companies, and Strategy and Metaplanet were on the watch list. Only companies that have failed the last two annual filing cycles will be removed. The final list will be announced on November 11, and the changes will take effect on November 30. On October 16, the first trading day after the decision was announced, Strategy's stock price fell by nearly 10%, the biggest one-day decline since February, and there was little change in Bitcoin's trend. If Strategy is eliminated, funds that track the MSCI index will be forced to sell their shares at a time when the size of Bitcoin held by the US Treasury has been drastically reduced.
If this incident comes true, it will first put pressure on Strategy's stock price, which in turn will cause the market to worry about whether it will continue to buy Bitcoin, which may indirectly affect Bitcoin's long-term demand expectations. Investors should pay close attention to the publication of the November 11 list, which will be an important time to test market sentiment and institutional position strategies.
In terms of the macro environment, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 28 attracted much attention. Since this year, WTI crude oil prices have risen by about 73%, and household inflation expectations have risen by 0.5 percentage points. Although the core inflation rate remained at the beginning of the year, the overall year-on-year increase in CPI in September and the core inflation rate were higher than expected. Yields have risen accordingly. The two-year US Treasury yield, which reflects future policy interest rate expectations, rose more than 1 percentage point this year to 4.8%. Even after the September 16 rate hike, it is still far above the Federal Reserve's target limit of 4%. Since that rate hike, the price of Bitcoin has increased by about 10%. If oil prices continue to push up inflation expectations, the possibility of another rate hike cannot be ruled out.
This accumulation of macroeconomic pressure makes the Fed's decisions critical. A high-yield environment usually puts pressure on risky assets, but if Bitcoin remains resilient in this environment, or even continues to rise, it will prove its resilience to risk as an independent asset class. Investors need to be wary. If the Federal Reserve maintains a tough stance, it may cause risk aversion in the market to heat up, which in turn will affect the overall performance of cryptocurrencies.
The asset rotation trend shows that Bitcoin is leading the market, while tokenized gold trading is cooling down. In 2026, the leading forces moved from metals to stocks to Bitcoin. Bitcoin has had the best performance in the past 10 weeks. During the rise in metal prices, the spot volume of tokenized gold products backed by physical gold, such as Tether Gold and PAX Gold, peaked in mid-February, then fell to 15% of the peak, and more than doubled in mid-September, but Bitcoin still led the way, and then fell to 20% of its peak in mid-February. Binance still holds the largest share, with OKX and Gate growing the fastest, with Gate shares rising from 0.6% in 2024 to 12% as of 2026. If metal prices lead the way again, the volume of gold trading on exchanges is likely to pick up.
Currently, the total amount of open positions in tokenized gold perpetual contracts is equivalent to 7.0 tons of gold, which is 62% higher than the February spot peak. Despite the decline in spot trading volume, unclosed positions continued to rise from 5.0 tons in mid-September, indicating that investors have been holding positions longer. Gate contributed the most to this increase, accounting for 42% of the total increase since January 1. Its ranking rose from 9th to 2nd, and OKX's ranking rose 6 places. Gate's total open positions are now 1.7 tons and OKX is 1.5 tons. If gold holdings continue to be above 6 tons and metals do not lead the way, investors hold gold on crypto exchanges not only because of rising prices, but because of long-term allocation requirements, which reflects the deepening of diversified investment strategies.
Exchange reserve dynamics and the cooling of altcoin leverage ratios reveal deep changes in the market structure. Bitcoin reserves have declined in most exchanges over the past year. Of the 11 exchanges that hold at least 1,000 bitcoins, 6 have fewer reserves than a year ago. Of the 5 companies that increased their reserves, Deribit grew the fastest, with Gate growing by 4.9%, and the remaining 10 falling by an average of 6.4%. As of the end of November, 4 exchanges had lower Bitcoin reserves than last October.
Despite the increase in the reserves of the largest exchanges, the remaining 10 companies combined are still about 10% less. As of October 18, the Gate report surpassed users' deposits by about US$1.4 billion, and assets accounted for more than 100% of their reserves. If the downtrend continues, Bitcoin will be concentrated on a few exchanges. In terms of altcoins, the 'Altcoin Bubble Index' broke out of its high position after peaking on October 7, and the average price fell 4% after October 15, the biggest weekend decline since May. ' The 'Global Bubble Index' is also low. In terms of financing rates, nearly a quarter of the altcoin rate was above neutral in late September, and has now fallen to a low level within the 2-year period, less than 5%. However, the size of open positions is only 5% below the October peak. Most leveraged contracts are still open. If the rate rises again, it will be a sign of a new round of excessive accumulation of leverage. Overall, the market is undergoing a process of deleveraging and concentration of reserves. The speculative atmosphere for altcoins has cooled down, but potential risks have not been completely eliminated. Investors need to be alert and watch for signs of another accumulation of leverage levels.