The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huaan Securities released a research report saying that global supply and demand for phosphorus resources continues to be tight, industry policy barriers are high, new supply is limited, and demand for new energy and energy storage continues to be released, and the boom in the sector is expected to continue. The proposal revolves around three main lines of layout: one is a leading integrated phosphorous chemical enterprise, with perfect cost advantages and strong profit stability; second, yellow phosphorus enterprise value revaluation, industry supply pattern is highly concentrated, demand for thermal phosphoric acid replacement continues to be released, and enterprises with phosphate ore and electricity support fully enjoy price flexibility; third, leading enterprises in phosphogypsum acid production technology. Using solid waste resources to effectively hedge sulphur price increases, open up production capacity and profit space, and has outstanding barrier advantages. A phosphorus chemical company.
The main views of Huaan Securities are as follows:
The global supply of phosphorus resources is tight, and the boom is expected to continue
The medium- to long-term prosperity of phosphate ore is expected to be maintained. First, the global emphasis on phosphorus resources has increased, domestic phosphate ore has been included as a strategic mineral since 2016, and overseas US listed elemental phosphorus as a key defense material in February 2026; second, due to safety and environmental protection factors, the industry's new production capacity is subject to strict policy approval, and the industry's new supply space is controlled as a whole, and actual production capacity may fall short of expectations under multiple hard conditions; third, power batteries and energy storage demand, where AI computing power supporting energy storage becomes an important additional driving force. In addition, the price of sulfuric acid fluctuates clearly. It has an integrated leader with phosphate facilities and diversified sources of sulfuric acid. Through raw material insurance and multi-route sulfuric acid supply, the cost advantage continues to be realized, and profit stability is stronger. The bank believes that leading listed companies with integrated mineralization support are expected to enjoy the optimization of the industry pattern.
The yellow phosphorus supply and demand pattern continues to be optimized, and the industrial chain is expected to usher in a revaluation
Supply-side yellow phosphorus is in the double high category. Domestic policies strictly control new production capacity. Stock production capacity indicators are scarce. Combined with phosphate mining quotas and hydropower energy consumption restrictions, the industry's supply flexibility is weak. Overseas Europe and the US have basically withdrawn from yellow phosphorus production, and global supply is highly dependent on domestic demand. On the demand side, against the backdrop of high sulfur price fluctuations, the cost of wet phosphoric acid continues to rise. With its purity advantage, replacement demand for thermal phosphoric acid continues to be released, bringing new demand in the new energy sector. The supply side of yellow phosphorus is strictly controlled at home and abroad, and demand side sulfur prices have not returned to before the conflict in recent years, causing alternative demand to continue to explode. The bank believes that the prosperity of the yellow phosphorus industry is expected to be maintained. Among them, leading integrated enterprises with their own phosphate mines and supporting electricity resources can hedge against fluctuations in phosphate ore and electricity costs, and fully enjoy the price elasticity of yellow phosphorus thermal phosphoric acid.
Phosphogypsum acid production technology is on the rise, and the profitability of the phosphorus chemical industry chain is expected to improve
Under the “production based on slag” policy, phosphogypsum consumption capacity directly limits the production capacity of enterprises. Solid waste acid can digest phosphogypsum as a by-product of wet phosphoric acid on a large scale. The sulfuric acid produced by the production process can directly replace imported sulfur, and has the ability to hedge against rising sulfur prices. During the upward phase of sulfur prices, the cost dividend of the project will be further amplified; co-production of cement clinker can also contribute additional benefits and enhance the safety and profitability of the supply chain. However, the track is highly asset-heavy, and there are high barriers to raw material pretreatment, process control, and building materials co-production indicators. Only leading enterprises with their own phosphogypsum resources and financial strength can land, making it more difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises to participate.
Risk Alerts
(1) Construction progress of new construction projects fell short of expectations; (2) prices of raw materials and products fluctuated sharply; (3) phosphate ore prices fell; (4) demand for new energy sources fell short of expectations; (5) macroeconomic decline.