U.S. stock futures are flashing deep red early Thursday as Wall Street navigates a tech-led selloff, escalating diplomatic standoffs in the Middle East, and surging crude oil prices.
The Polymarket traders, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform, turned bearish for the Oct. 22 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?” contract currently reflects a 19% chance of a higher open.
Why That Number Matters
Traders are balancing negative index futures against rising energy costs, upcoming labor data, and key corporate earnings:
- Negative Index Futures: Tech shares are under intense pressure, with Nasdaq 100 futures dropping 1.33%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.69%, Russell 2000 futures dropped 0.62%, and Dow Jones futures slipped 0.33%.
- Geopolitics & Soaring Oil: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Tehran is willing to give diplomacy “another chance” with President Donald Trump, but warned that further U.S. military action would lead to a “greater strategic failure.” Araghchi noted that the war has cost American households nearly $2,000 each due to higher fuel costs. With nuclear talks remaining at a standoff, energy markets spiked: Brent crude surged 2.03% to $111.03 a barrel, and WTI crude rose 1.79% to $98.89 a barrel.
- Economic Calendar: Initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 17 are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by September’s leading indicators at 10:00 a.m. ET, and the October Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey at 11:00 a.m. ET.
- Earnings Today: Thursday’s heavy earnings slate also includes Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE:PG), Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:LMT), Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT), Western Digital Corp. (NASDAQ:WDC), and Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ:CMCSA).
The Market Outlook
According to Louis Navellier, Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) raised its fiscal first-quarter revenue guidance to $18.5 billion –$19.5 billion due to strong AI demand, while Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.35 per share, beating estimates of $0.16, alongside talks of a potential Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) merger.
Attention now shifts to Tesla’s third-quarter results, where investors are focused on margins and Optimus robot guidance following four consecutive quarterly EPS misses. “It is important to note that Tesla has missed analyst earnings estimates for the past four quarters due to operating margin compression as well as the ramp-up of Optimus robots. As a result, it is imperative that Tesla provide upbeat guidance regarding sales, operating margins, and signal when it expects Optimus robots to be profitable,” said Navellier.
How the Previous Bet Played Out
The Oct. 21 Polymarket contract resolved “Up”. The contract recorded $80,857 in total trading volume.
On Wednesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed higher. SPY rose 0.53% to $773.09, while QQQ advanced 1.50% to $725.20. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), ended 0.64% higher at $527.70.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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