According to Woofun AI, the US-listed Bitcoin ETF attracted more than $1 billion in capital this week, marking an initial rebound in institutional investors' interest in the crypto asset. However, this inflow of capital fell far short of the threshold needed to trigger a historic sharp rise. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus, noted that despite signs of improvement in demand, capital flows are still unstable, and only maintaining a strong continuous net inflow can confirm a stronger recovery for BTC. Historical data strongly supports this view: any major bull market that has caused the BTC price to soar by more than 50% and retraced by no more than 20% has had an average daily net inflow of more than $200 million. Since the ETF was launched in January 2024, BTC has experienced three gains consistent with this characteristic, and the current funding pace seems too slow compared to that.
Looking back at the past three sharp increases, the intensity and sustainability of capital inflows formed the core driving force behind the sharp rise in prices. The first rally occurred between January 23 and March 14, 2024, when the price of BTC jumped from around $39,900 to $71,400, a 79% increase. During this period, these funds attracted an average daily inflow of $294 million, of which inflows were over $500 million in 10 days and over $1 billion a day. The second rally occurred between August 5 and December 17, 2024, when the BTC price climbed from around $54,100 to $106,100, a 96% increase.
The average daily capital inflow during that period was US$202 million, with an inflow of over US$500 million for 16 days and an inflow of over US$1 billion for 3 days. The third increase was from April 6 to July 14, 2025, when the price of BTC rose 53% from about $78,400 to $119,900. The average daily capital inflow at this time was US$248 million, of which 13 days had an inflow of over US$500 million and a 2-day inflow of over US$1 billion. Over these 199 trading days, these funds attracted a total of 46.7 billion US dollars in capital inflows, with an average of about 235 million US dollars per day. Of these, 39 days of inflows were over 500 million US dollars, and 6 days of inflows exceeded 1 billion US dollars.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, in these three bull markets, the average daily inflow was stable at over 200 million US dollars, and large inflows occurred frequently every day, creating a solid foundation for rising prices.
In contrast, the current rate of capital inflows has slowed significantly, making it difficult to replicate previous brilliant performance. Since July 1, the price of BTC has risen 39% from around $60,000 to $83,500. During this period, these funds only had an inflow of more than $500 million for 7 days, and only occurred about every 11 trading days, compared to about every 5 trading days in the previous three sharp increases. The current average daily capital inflow is about 86 million US dollars, far below the level of more than 200 million US dollars during those sharp increases, and there has been no single day inflow of more than 1 billion US dollars.
This gap in capital strength directly reflects the prudence and differences in current market sentiment. Using history as a reference, if BTC wants to see another sharp rise, it is necessary to maintain a steady flow of capital inflows, raise the average daily inflow to more than $200 million, and increase the frequency of large inflows on a daily basis.
However, history can only be used as a reference, and future trends cannot be guaranteed. Furthermore, demand from methods such as buying BTC tokens directly through the futures market or other channels may also drive the price of BTC up, which means that ETF data is not the only pricing anchor.
From a structural point of view, the market is currently in a critical verification period. While the weekly inflow of $1.08 billion is encouraging, the average daily intensity and sustainability behind it remains insufficient. Investors need to be wary of the volatility of capital flows and pay attention to whether more large sums of money can enter the market in the future to confirm the sustainability of this round of growth.
The more critical variable is whether demand from non-ETF channels can fill this gap and thus jointly push BTC beyond the current consolidation range. This is an important moment for the market to once again face a choice of direction after the July rally ended in July 2025.