Key Points
Rivian will need a significant sequential increase in fiscal Q4 deliveries to meet its annual guidance.
Recent momentum connected to the launch of the R2 platform suggests the company should at least surpass the low end of its target.
After the market closes on Oct. 29, Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is gearing up to report results for the third quarter -- a period that ended on Sept. 30. The earnings report is set to be a big moment for the company and will provide investors with key insights into the business's gross margin, progress in production and deliveries, and demand outlook.
With its last quarterly update, Rivian reiterated its guidance to deliver between 65,000 and 75,000 vehicles in the current fiscal year -- which ends Dec. 31, 2026. If the company hits the midpoint of that guidance range, it would represent roughly 60% annual growth over the 42,247 vehicles that it delivered in fiscal 2025. Just how many vehicles will the company need to have delivered in Q4 in order to meet its target?
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Image source: Rivian.
Rivian's deliveries are seeing an encouraging increase
Automakers now report third-quarter vehicle deliveries at the start of October, before releasing their full earnings reports. In the third quarter, Rivian said it delivered 19,248 vehicles -- up 45% year over year from the prior-year period. Meanwhile, the company delivered 12,194 vehicles in Q2 and 10,365 vehicles in Q1. Across the first three quarters of the year, the delivery count totaled 41,807 vehicles.
This means the company will need to deliver 23,193 vehicles in the current quarter to meet the low end of its guidance and 28,193 vehicles to meet the high end of the target range. Hitting the midpoint of the guidance range would require the delivery of 25,693 vehicles in Q4.
Notably, there appears to be a good chance the business will significantly exceed the low end of its guidance range. The average analyst estimate had called for Rivian to deliver roughly 18,000 vehicles in fiscal Q3 -- but actual results breezed past that projection. Along with demand coming in significantly stronger than expected in Q3, Rivian has also recorded a substantial sequential delivery ramp-up in each quarter this year. Even better, the rate of deliveries growth has been accelerating.
The huge jump in Q3 coincided with the launch of the company's R2 platform electric vehicle (EVs) -- which began deliveries in June. With production still ramping up in that period and less than a month of sales for the vehicles in the fiscal quarter powering a big sequential increase in deliveries, there are good reasons to think the company will record an even greater sequential increase in deliveries in fiscal Q4.
While hitting the 28,193 needed to reach the high end of the company's guidance might look like a tall order compared with earlier quarters, it actually appears within reach. When Rivian reports its Q3 earnings at the end of the month, investors will also want to hear about contributions from its software offerings and updates on its autonomous technologies; the software side of the business has become central to driving gross profit. Investors will also be looking for updated guidance from the company on Q4 deliveries.
Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.