The Zhitong Finance App learned that Moderna (MRNA.US) stock price plummeted 25% on Thursday because some clinical trial data on the personalized cancer vaccine jointly developed by the company and MRK.US (MRK.US) was leaked ahead of time, triggering investors to sell off. Although full phase III clinical trial data released later showed that the cancer vaccine could significantly reduce the risk of cancer recurrence or death in some melanoma patients, the stock prices of both pharmaceutical companies fell. Wall Street analysts believe that the negative reaction in the market may stem more from investors' previous high expectations for this highly anticipated cancer vaccine rather than the disappointing clinical data itself.
This personalized cancer vaccine, called intismeran AutoGene, was used in combination with MSD's immunotherapy KeyTruda. In a phase III clinical trial for specific melanoma patients, the risk of cancer recurrence or death was reduced by 42% compared to using Keytruda alone.
At the same time, trial data showed that combination therapy reduced the risk of cancer spreading to remote parts of the body or death of patients by 38%. After two years of treatment, approximately 82% of patients treated with the cancer vaccine in combination with Keytruda were alive and had no recurrence of melanoma, compared to 70% of patients treated with Keytruda alone.
The two companies plan to officially present the detailed results of this phase III clinical trial at the European Society of Medical Oncology (ESMO) conference to be held this weekend. Despite the above data showing clear clinical benefits from combination therapies, investors seem disappointed. Moderna's stock price fell 25% on Thursday, and MSD's stock price also fell by more than 1%.
BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman pointed out in a research report released on Thursday that the relative improvement achieved by combination therapy in reducing the risk of cancer recurrence or death has clear clinical significance. He believes that such a drastic reaction in Moderna's stock price may reflect that investors' expectations before the full data was released have inflated excessively, and should not be interpreted as the market's denial of the effectiveness of combination therapies.
UBS analysts also said in a research report released on Thursday that the overall results of this set of clinical trial data were strong and strengthened the bank's confidence in the future clinical research prospects of this cancer vaccine in the fields of kidney cancer and bladder cancer. UBS also believes that the sharp drop in Moderna's stock price may be more related to the market's previous extremely high expectations rather than poor actual clinical data performance.
The market has always viewed the personalized cancer vaccine jointly developed by Moderna and MSD as a potential breakthrough cancer treatment. Unlike traditional vaccines, this product needs to be individually designed according to the characteristics of the patient's own tumor to help the immune system identify and attack cancer cells. Investors expect that in the future, the technology will not only be used to treat melanoma, but may also expand to other cancer types, thereby opening up a wider commercial market.
For Moderna, the importance of this cancer vaccine is particularly prominent. Following the COVID-19 vaccine and influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) related vaccine products, the company urgently needs to further expand its product portfolio, and cancer vaccines are seen as a potential major driver of commercial growth in the future.
This optimistic expectation has previously driven Moderna's stock price up sharply. As of Thursday afternoon, the stock had accumulated gains of more than 530% this year. In contrast, the stock price of the larger MSD has increased by nearly 41% since this year.
However, commercialization of personalized cancer vaccines still faces challenges such as complicated manufacturing processes and long production cycles. Since every patient requires a customized vaccine, the relevant production process may currently take about six weeks, which means that whether the product can be delivered quickly and on a large scale will be an important test for future commercialization.
Robert Davis, CEO of MSD, said in an interview last week that the company believes it can further shorten the production cycle in the future, so that more patients can get treatment faster.
Overall, the sharp drop in Moderna's stock price highlights the gap between the market's high expectations for breakthrough cancer treatments and actual clinical progress. Although phase III clinical data showed clinically significant treatment effects, against the backdrop that stock prices have increased several times this year, investors' requirements for new data have also increased markedly.
As the full trial results are further revealed at the ESMO conference, the focus of market attention will shift to the long-term efficacy, safety, follow-up regulatory progress of combination therapy, and whether this personalized cancer vaccine technology can be successfully expanded to more cancer treatment fields.