Axfood stock closed at SEK273.7 on Thursday, roughly flat over the past week, just as the retailer unveiled its Q3 2026 scorecard. The market barely moved. The business did. Earnings per share landed at 3.47 SEK and net income reached SEK 749m, both delivered in a grocery market battling food price deflation.
The real story sits in profitability. Group net margin over the past 12 months is now 2.7% compared with 2.4% a year earlier, a quiet but important shift that matters far more for long term holders than today’s muted price reaction.
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Q3 2026 Earnings Summary
- Revenue, Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025: SEK 22,711m vs. SEK 22,286m (modest increase)
- Net Income, Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025: SEK 749m vs. SEK 713m (higher profit year on year)
- Basic EPS, Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025: 3.47 SEK vs. 3.30 SEK (earnings per share improved)
- Net Margin, Trailing 12 Months vs. Prior 12 Months: 2.7% vs. 2.4% (profitability ratio increased)
Earnings tell you how Axfood performed in a quarter, but investors who care about what they are paying for the business usually follow the cash moving through the business.
Look at Axfood's cash flows instead of just its latest profit line and the stock could be a dramatic 43% undervalued.
Axfood efficiency story clears key early hurdles
The bullish script says Axfood’s heavy spend on automation and logistics should steadily lift efficiency and profitability.
"The company's ongoing investments in supply chain automation and logistics (e.g., the fully operational Bålsta robotic warehouse and planned capacity expansion in southern Sweden by 2030) are expected to continue driving operating cost reductions and margin improvements, with efficiency gains gradually increasing towards the upper end of targeted savings, positively impacting net margins and long-term earnings growth."
Q3 offers some proof. Group operating margin held at 4.9% despite deflation and fuel pressure. Dagab’s productivity improved, with Bålsta at record levels, and net margin over the past 12 months reached 2.7%. These are early but concrete milestones for the efficiency thesis.
City Gross and capital intensity keep the risk case alive
The risk narrative focuses on hypermarket integration setbacks and heavy logistics capex weighing on Axfood’s returns.
"Axfood's recent large-scale investments in logistics automation and expansion (e.g., Bålsta fulfillment center, further planned capacity in southern Sweden) increase capital employed and financial leverage; if volume growth or operational efficiencies fall short, returns on these investments could be inadequate and negatively impact long-term return on capital and overall profitability."
Recent numbers partly soften that worry. City Gross is now profitable, with the rolling 12-month result around breakeven, and group net debt/EBITDA of 0.6 looks conservative. That said, some Kungsbacka automation spend has slipped in timing, so execution and payback risk on the logistics buildout is not off the table.
Not everyone reads the same price the same way. → See the lower figure this Narrative lands on, and how it gets there.
Hunt Quiet Mispriced Compounders
Axfood just showed how a busy earnings quarter can leave the share price almost unchanged. The real opportunity sits in stocks that could be undervalued before the wider market adjusts.
- Company 1 - 47% below our estimate - supplies high voltage connectors utilities need as grid upgrades, data centres and rail projects strain infrastructure.
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That is three of the list. See every one of the 193 undervalued companies on it →
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