CITIC Construction Investment is optimistic about the recovery of the fertilizer industry in the context of rising food prices driven by El Niño, and the strengthening of the competitive advantage of leading players in supply-side pattern optimization: the super-strong El Niño incident was officially formed in September 2026 and may continue until February 2027. The rise in food prices is expected to drive a recovery in planting earnings and support fertilizer demand. Demand for nitrogen fertilizer is growing steadily and supply growth is declining. New production capacity is concentrated on cost-competitive leaders, and the price center is expected to rise steadily. The cost of phosphate fertilizer is being repaired, and unit profit is expected to improve marginally. In the medium term, it is optimistic that the phosphate ore boom will continue and that phosphate fertilizer exports will gradually shift to a licensed business, highlighting the advantages of integrated enterprises with phosphate ore resources. Under the global oligopoly pattern of potash fertilizer, supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance in 2027, and the industry boom is expected to continue. The competitive focus of the compound fertilizer industry is shifting to product structure upgrading, and I am optimistic that leading companies with brand, channel and product innovation capabilities will continue to expand their share+unit profit level.

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