Huatai Securities said that the Middle East conflict has continued for more than seven months, and the global oil supply chain is forming a new operating model. Since August, crude oil supply has clearly recovered due to alternative pipelines, hidden ship traffic, maritime connections, and increased supply from other oil producers. In September, crude oil exports from Iran to the Middle East and Gulf were once close to pre-war levels, but oil prices did not fall at the same time. The core change is that the oil market has moved from the initial supply of crude oil to a pattern where multiple constraints such as declining transportation efficiency, inventory buffer consumption, and insufficient refining and chemical production capacity coexist.

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